sunday thoughts
you can get the impression reading about financial crises that preceding events move very quickly and hindsight is 20/20.
but that’s not quite right.
bear stearns was showing widely reported significant distress in 2006 and 2007 before they eventually went under in march 2008. lehman took another 6 months to go under.
EVERYONE knew there were massive problems in the asset backed securitization market. what wasn’t well understood was the systemic risk.
today, everyone knows the commercial mortgage market is in trouble.
many of the assumptions of the last decade have been totally upended.
do we properly understand the systemic risk?
are we looking through the short term ebb and flow of the market and properly assessing the long term trends?
brendan
brendan@nostrplebs.com
npub1fe77...t09p
toronto, canada
everything changed at wealthsimple after drake bought a minority stake lol #canada
gm friends ☁️ ☕️


gn ✌️
feeling bold, might go searching through the global feed
feeling masochistic, might listen to paul krugman talk inflation on the ezra klein podcast
anyone here use a wire service for high volume press release distribution? they’re expensive services and i’m curious if people have had media relations success using them (in terms of earned media or SEO)
people are all riled up on the bird app


hey guys are we winning?
mgmt teams are saying they want you back in the office to drive in-person collaboration (lol). meanwhile, the largest shareholders in corporate america are holding the bag on trillions of mortgage backed securities.
they want your ass back in the office so they can be made whole on their bad investments 👇


Bloomberg.com
Commercial Property Market Freezes, Sending Bond Volume Plummeting
Sales of commercial mortgage bonds have fallen off a cliff, plummeting about 85% year-over-year, as rising interest rates cut into lending volume a...
oh, and gm ☕️
executives thinking they could achieve a 90% return to office rate were delusional


the city wakes. #toronto, 7:06am


🛌 ✌️
does #toronto need more office space?


stay humble, stack sats, and don’t make unknowable prognostications on the direction of interest rates
☕️ ✌️
the sun is up and the city feels hopeful
(just ignore the markets)


10 year treasury yields going back up past 3.9%. gotta stay humble
7:25 in toronto, with a little snow on the ground.
gm ❄️


gn friends 🫂