#BITCOIN - Current cycle by @bobloukas
You guys know I'm a long time fan of Bob Loukas... and yesterday He released another of his periodic reports called "4 Year Journey - The Raging Phase" on YT.
Below here I'll give a brief statement of the main points of his report:
* He has no doubt we're in the final phase of this current #bitcoin cycle (3rd year of 4). Remember, Bob considers the end of a cycle and the beginning of a new one when we hit the BOTTOM, not the TOP. So summarizing his "view" we are going to see cycle top in 2025 and the bottom of the pit in 2026.
* According to him, on previous cycles we saw high VOLATILITY during this phase of the bull run, so do not get scared if you see draw-downs of 10-20% (maybe even 30%) in the next weeks/months.
* We have just started year 3 of this current cycle, so we can roughly project cycle top for October-November 2025. It could happen a little earlier or maybe a little later, but October 2025 is the most probable month when we talk about cycle top forecast.
* Bob sees this cycle mirroring past cycles almost perfectly.
* He also says institutional FOMO is here. The possible BTC strategic reserved promised by Trump could play a huge role here.
* All the narratives and fundamentals are aligned to help BTC break the 100k barrier and do not look back specially when you have this 7 months consolidation phase we just had.
* We might see a generous correction right after Trump administration inauguration in late January 2025. This period could last for about a month or two. Don't get scared, have some powder aside to accumulate even more. This is going to be healthy and is going to make the general sentiment to get a little frothy clearing out all the significant leverage.
* He mentions that he doesn't like to set cycle top target in terms of BTC price but he reminds us of the so called DIMINISH RETURNS that could act as a resistance in the low 100s, let's say 120-130k BUT, there's always a BUT 😁... Depending on real actions of the new US administration (and even other nations/institutions) we could see something like a "super cycle" raising the price well beyond that projection. Anyway, he emphasizes again that this is pointless at this moment and he prefers to go evaluation this step by step as time goes by considering this is kind of too early yet.
He still talk about a lot more but here's what I've found to be the most important points. Hope this can help you travel to the moon 🤩 !
