Jeff the financial advisor at Thanksgiving: "Hey how's the crypto thing going? Heard it's crashing might be a good time to get out..."
My response:
"Of course that's your contention.
You heard that from Jim Cramer on CNBC.
You probably just got finished listening to some interview that Quantum computing is going to kill Bitcoin
You're gonna be convinced to sell it all because the 'crypto' bull run is over according to the 4-year cycle.
That's until next month when the Fed shockingly cuts rates in a data blackout to everyones surprise.
This is because the U.S. is entering a structural debt crisis driven by unsustainable fiscal deficits, collapsing demand for long-term Treasuries, massive short-end rollover, geopolitical shifts that undermine dollar hegemony, and a capital-hungry AI sector competing with Treasury for funding.
Bitcoin is the only crypto that matters, and is falling because it's the earliest liquidity sensor, while gold is rising due to sovereign demand and geopolitical reality.
The system is becoming increasingly unstable—hedge fund leverage, short-end issuance, repo stress, and misaligned government policy create a closed loop of self-reinforcing liquidity shortages.
We could even see a sharp downturn in early 2026 that forces a political and monetary pivot toward large-scale currency debasement.
In the long-term, Bitcoin becomes the neutral reserve asset, outperforms everything, and the 'four-year cycle' nonsense is dead.
But yeah, keep recommending your clients those government IOUs"
