The rise and fall of crypto has tainted Bitcoin and delayed what will inevitably happen. This offers both opportunity and frustrating headwinds. BTC remains completely misunderstood by most.

Too many people nowadays view Bitcoin through an “investment thesis” lens when really they should view it more through a “core properties” lens. Otherwise you’ll always be behind the curve

I think this is that point in world history, which seems to come every century, where you just need to look after yourself, your family and your inner circle, act rationally but for the most part disconnect emotionally from the news cycle.

The optionality that self-custodied bitcoin provides against the backdrop of a rapidly (and dangerously) changing world, compared to stocks, real estate, even gold, is completely underappreciated and undervalued atm. Muh quantum. Wish that was the biggest of our worries brother.

Some people (hedge funds I’m guessing) are obviously balls deep in the long gold / short Bitcoin trade. Can’t wait for Bitcoin to do a Bitcoin, there will be carnage

When it comes to investing, I mentally divide trades into 3 different buckets. Bucket 1 - market exposure, this is just your all world equity exposure, typically ETFs with extremely low fees, heavy on US Big Tech by definition. If global headlines say, oh no it’s risky out there, stocks are down, you’re losing money together with the rest of the world, and vice versa. Beta Bucket 2 - thematic exposure where the theme should have tailwinds, but where I’m not sure if it will play out in the near term. Markets may be overheated, the theme is coming to the end of its life or things are fully priced in. Things like AI tick all of those for me right now. Potential alpha Bucket 3 - thematic exposure that I know for sure will go higher, almost mechanically. Think Europe defence stocks into threats from 3 directions and all governments ramping up spending in the hundreds of billions. Think Bitcoin into balance sheet expansion. Think gold into global uncertainty. Alpha I think the best investors have capacity to construct a portfolio that is extremely heavy on bucket 3. They see things with a clarity others don’t.

I can’t really take bitcoiners cheering on an aggressively expansionist central government seriously. I mean people who like that sort of thing exist and that’s fine and all, but I’ll never respect your larping about decentralisation and freedom after that.

Was straight up not having a good time with whatever the fuck this is just now. UX hell

Back in 2021 I was a big worrying about quantum guy. Would not have worked out well for me if I had leaned into those worries.

Performance update on my OostLog model portfolio (inception: 25 Dec 2025): +5.76%. Off to a good start. I’ll rebalance this occasionally and write about my reasoning here. Starting capital for the portfolio is $1m. Note: my own wealth is actually stored more Bitcoin-heavy than this. This portfolio is intended as a capital-preservation / fiat-markets + hard-assets hybrid, and also as a framework for thinking through investment themes. Housekeeping: LNGR from my original portfolio (longevity) appears to have been delisted. I’m keeping that 2.5% in cash for now, ready to deploy.

Asset allocation themes for 2026

Breaking down my personal investing framework and themes for 2026 and beyond

I secretly counter trade my own kids Pay them pocket money in sats at $125k, they come to me at $95k saying they want to use it to buy some shit Bang, gonna have to transfer me back more sats for that, kid. Better study bitcoin harder next time Thug life

I find that if you tune out the noise and think about markets at the highest positive level in an intuitive way, it’s almost always very clear which way Bitcoin is headed against fiat. 2018-19 - fed starts QT, shitcoin mania obviously got overextended, it can only go one way (down). 2020 - Fed balance sheet is expanding, Fed firing on all cylinders, adoption accelerating, it can only go one way (up). 2021/22 - Fed starts QT, Celsius, FTX etc blowing up, it can only go one way (down). 2023-25 - ETFs pick up steam, it can only go one way (up). 2026 - ETFs to grow and grow, QE to restart, it can only go one way (up). There’s not a pattern, just a few basic drivers. What’s the Fed doing in terms of printing, what does adoption look like and is the crypto market going to shit yes or no. Also learn to look at the monthly candles, so that wicks like Mar20, Aug24, Nov25 don’t distort your perspective. Fuck the traders and their noise

Bitcoin ETFs are a coping mechanism for the masses who know they’ll never be whole coiners

I’ve always been a cold storage “stack it and forget it” Bitcoin guy Only last year I set up wallets for actively spending my Bitcoin (segregated from the main stash for psychological reasons and funded via a low fee cex with little friction in terms of cost and time) Feel like it’s helped me ascend to a deeper understanding of Bitcoin and its future. On the one hand, yeah it IS digital gold and none of us will ever own as much of it as we do today. On the other hand, money must be spent. That’s how Bitcoin wins and how you slowly uncuck yourself

The real fight here imo is about who gets to control the cycle If you keep Fed dominance = asset inflation + controlled CPI + stagnation via engineered busts and risk aversion If you get Treasury calling the shots = weaker USD + perpetual asset inflation + stagnation via asset inflation crowding out productive growth So it’s not really 1970s style inflation, but more 2010–20 on steroids: a long, grinding asset-led inflationary drift

You seen the Powell presser? Probably shouldn’t have sold your Bitcoin no?

Idk, I’ve always seen it as a brothers-in-arms kind of thing. We suffer and we win together, but don’t need to be best friends. Real ones that leave aren’t forgotten. My team is going through some redundancies rn, but truthfully, the ones that will be cut haven’t really shown their face on the battlefield for years. It’s not that deep.

I like this new era of Bitcoin. Less hypey, all shitcoins dead already. Talking heads shouting about how mediocre the gains against dollar will be from here out. Yet the coin just existing, at 90k. Freedom money for anyone to adopt, now 99% less retarded

Bitcoin is going way higher (Fed balance sheet).