It’s obvious that as the boomer generation permanently fades out over the next 10 years or so, shit is going to hit the fan everywhere.

Number go up is a nice feature. But actually, even if Bitcoin forever stays at $92,255, whatever part of my net worth I have stored in it and in cold storage, is mine and my family’s forever. You can’t say the same for all your other assets, which will inevitably get turbo taxed or confiscated in war or economic collapse. Yes, that includes your Bitcoin ETFs. So you might go “oh perhaps I should get some”. You try to buy Bitcoin after going through degrading KYC exercises and your card rejects the transaction. You try to send $10k to Coinbase and your bank’s AML department would like a word with you. Soft capital controls are already everywhere, and the net is tightening. If you’re still fixated on Bitcoin price, you’re thinking about the wrong way. Stack sats like your life depends on it.

People seem to forget it’s a BTC trader tradition to be seasonally ultra bullish, followed by ultra bearish. Ie they’re just signaling their book as they trade to grow their stack, and there’s zero signal here. The signal will be when Bitcoin finally gets so scarce the market starts to steamroll these mfs with their annoying mind games one by one.

KYC, AML, restrictions on how we move our money around and how much cash we are allowed to spend by mommy government are legitimately insane. How this generation ever managed to get so turbo cucked needs to be studied

If we were to pretend that we are in the future, looking back on today, we’d conclude that the behaviour of European bureaucrats, seemingly acting in complete disregard of the will of their own people, is the perfect intro to a violent revolution and retribution by the people.

By the early 22nd century, books about how the boomer generation killed western civilization, out of pure selfishness, apathy and virtue signaling, will form a genre of its own

How I view markets right now, super high level: The 2010s were a deflation-reflation regime: we saw private deleveraging, austerity, China’s slowdown, peak globalisation, QE. The 2020s so far are really the opposite: fiscal dominance, QT, remilitarisation, supply constraints, tight labour markets, reshoring, that sort of thing. So now we kind of go back and forth between inflation and disinflation (goldilocks). This regime can of course change any time, but only if the source of inflation flips from supply/fiscal to demand. For that we need either 1) a demand shock (credit event, labour-market break, sovereign stress), or 2) forced fiscal tightening. The biggest tail risk I see, outside of geopolitical risks spiraling, is a global sovereign debt scare, something like the eurozone crisis in 2011-12 but with global contagion across developed markets. For Bitcoin, the current environment is still structurally favourable imo. Fiscal dominance + unstable real yields + rising term premia help it (or rather hurt the dollar). BTC thrives when the credibility of sovereign balance sheets is questioned. Liquidity remains constrained for now, but the end of Fed balance-sheet runoff improves liquidity conditions. If the current regime breaks via a demand shock, BTC sells off sharply with other risk assets. But once policy makers respond (QE, rate cuts, fiscal), BTC recovers first and fastest too. A sovereign-debt scare meanwhile would be chaotic in the short run but structurally bullish. The more investors doubt DM fiscal sustainability, the stronger the long-horizon bid for BTC becomes. Volatility up, long-term credibility of fiat down. And if we stay in this regime, I expect BTC to crawl up. So all signs are green imo.

Wall Street’s “crypto” suits aren’t even real suits. In my experience they’re usually either fallen-up IT staff, or fallen-down failed equity portfolio managers and such types. Can’t be taken seriously.

When yield curve control

No on feels as suppressed as a tradfi decision maker who wants to say shit on social media but has 700 compliance people breathing down his neck about appropriate social media use every day

Always thought people like this (and similar specimens) might be in on some elaborate psyop to slow down the adoption of bitcoin at the margins. Because if we all go in at once, chaos ensues

Big finance corporate politics is at its most interesting when you match up careerist “managing up” rank climbers with deep domain experts. Both loathe each other and can’t get rid of the other. When either tries to step into the other’s field, they die

Always found it surprising we saw a mini bull run into the Fed balance sheet unwind. Was imo purely on ETF flows. Tend to think we need a last wick down to decisively kill all shitcoins; but other than that, the environment becomes much more supportive now the unwind has stopped.