OostLog

Big finance corporate politics is at its most interesting when you match up careerist “managing up” rank climbers with deep domain experts. Both loathe each other and can’t get rid of the other. When either tries to step into the other’s field, they die

Always found it surprising we saw a mini bull run into the Fed balance sheet unwind. Was imo purely on ETF flows. Tend to think we need a last wick down to decisively kill all shitcoins; but other than that, the environment becomes much more supportive now the unwind has stopped.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-06/is-bitcoin-the-digital-version-of-tulips-merryn-talks-money "This time, at $89k, we really got them. Haha! rip Bitcoin" -some Bloomberg cunt over the weekend

Groningen

If the US really wants to effectuate change in Europe, they need to play to the European electorate directly and bypass the propaganda machine, by tying security guarantees and economic collaboration to Europeans voting for nationalist and patriotic parties. Anything else keeps getting stuck in the trap European elites have laid, “look the US is backstabbing us”. Show Europeans you’re on their side.

The section on Europe in the US National Security Strategy doc goes hard. All true, and exasperating to read as a European (albeit outside Europe for a decade). It clearly comes from a place of fondness. The question however, is how to win the propaganda war within Europe, to sway the European people to do something about their plight (or whether the US should care enough in the first place to even take it there). The problem is that there are existential fears at play. When the US says “your politicians are playing you, we’re not paying for the war in Ukraine any longer”, whether it’s on this topic or any other, within Europe it is widely seen as a back stabbing action. So any action comes back like a boomerang to hit you in the face. So question is, how can the American people and the US government establish stronger more direct connections with the Europeans, bypassing its perfidious elites? Should they even care?

2011–21: Shitcoins invented by arrogant humans angry they weren’t “early” to Bitcoin, making up lies so they could have their own giga-wealth event by scamming others, not recognizing it was a one-off event. 2021–24: Shitcoins die + general acceptance of this fact, except for a few extremely stubborn cultists enjoying the ever-smaller roller-coaster loop as everyone pukes all over each other. 2025–maybe 2030: Human arrogance strikes again as people will proclaim Bitcoin absolutely dead - “look at it, it dumped from 90k to 85k lmao losers, I’m buying stocks, crypto is dead.” 2030 onwards: Bitcoin finally wins and reaches $1m as humans have depleted all their tricks and propaganda to obstruct that from happening, and it becomes the world’s savings account.

It’s really not complicated, though it’s one of those things all the genius bureaucrats can think of a million complex solutions for without ever touching the logical core. The natural and normal thing is for men and women to be attracted to each other, to become exclusive and start a family against the backdrop of an always slightly dangerous and uncertain world. The man provides security and income. The woman provides warmth, care for household, husband and children. Both gain stability and quality of life, and feel proud and content of their contribution. Because on average it works well, families have 3 kids or more. This is the normal state. What are the man things that break this? 1. Gender roles being distorted through feminist and other (homo)sexual propaganda. The man becomes a sort of woman and the woman becomes a man. Chemistry breaks 2. The government obstructing the provider from providing by running the economy on fake printed money, inflating assets and products versus salaries. Further distorting gender roles as women are now required to work. Wrecking families in the process. 3. The government further obstructing the ability to provide by stealing part of that salary, and also taking over the role of provider and protector itself, all the while importing millions of people from lower IQ countries that pose a danger to the natives, therefore increasing the need for said government protection. Note - I am merely observing. No issues at all with women working, but I see that more as individual cases, we all have our personalities and preferences. I am merely observing that to improve birth rates, you need to get rid of feminism, gay propaganda, taxes, fiat currency (or not run it recklessly), immigration. The solution is easy enough. Africa and Muslim countries have the highest birth rates. They tick all or most these boxes. Mostly poor countries on top. Rich western countries that want higher birth rates simply need to figure out how to be less gay, fake/fiat, feminist and brown.

I used to run a 100k+ account on Twitter/X in a niche that I’ve since grown disinterested in. Grew it from scratch, organically. Given the way privacy/surveillance is going in the real world (chat control etc), I’ve decided to go all in on Nostr.

Building a personal profile on Nostr is one of the best long-term investments you can make, imo. Sits at the intersection of building a portable reputation in the attention economy - positioning yourself for future opportunities - while doing so on a censorship-resistant platform that’s still small today but likely to grow rapidly once the EU and others eventually inevitably clamp down on X. This place will rise and come to dominate social media, the way Bitcoin did in the monetary realm.

Stylised, but let’s say: In 2013 30m people knew about bitcoin and out of that 500k owned it. By 2018 it was maybe 1bn aware vs 25m owners. By 2025 it was practically the whole world of 8bn aware and maybe 200m owners (including coinbase etc). So you’ve gone from 29.5m to 975m to 7.8bn people underexposed that are either still Bitcoin curious and awaiting their chance, or incentivised to hate it and hope it fails. The amount of FUD and cheering for bear markets you are going to see has risen exponentially. If you own BTC you will in the next decade likely get extremely rich against an ever louder backdrop of people shouting what a failure it is. It’s only beyond that horizon that worldwide acceptance lies. Imo

Main global themes: Rise of AI Indebtedness Currency debasement Surveillance, confiscation Instability So you invest in: Tech Defence Bitcoin Short DM govt bonds and FX It’s not rocket science