Girino Vey!'s avatar
Girino Vey!
girino@girino.org
npub18lav...cfsz
Software developer and political nihilist.
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Girino Vey! 6 days ago
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago
image Lots of talk about SpaceX here on social media. Most of the stories are sbout Elon Musk becoming the first Trillionaire but I don't see many people explaining plainly and clearly exactly what is going on: Here's the most important takeaway: The market, left to its own logic, would discipline capitalists who make bad investments. But monopoly capitalism cannot permit its titans to fail, because their failure would trigger a cascade that threatens the entire system. Here is what is actually happening with the SpaceX IPO. First, the bubble. Elon Musk and the venture capital class have built massive paper fortunes on companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. These companies are not profitable. SpaceX lost $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The AI companies are bleeding cash while losing customers to cheaper Chinese competitors. In a genuine free market, these companies would face a reckoning. Their valuations would collapse. The early investors would be wiped out. The billionaires would lose billions. The market's verdict on their investments would be ruthless and negative. But they are not just any investors. They are the oligarchy, and they control the state. So rather than accept the market's discipline, they changed the rules. NASDAQ's "fast entry" mechanism means that even an unprofitable, overvalued company like SpaceX is guaranteed a place in the index that every pension fund and 401(k) must buy. The losses from bad investments are socialized—spread across the retirement savings of millions of ordinary workers—while the gains from the initial public offering remain privatized in the hands of Musk and his insiders. This is the second bubble. The first bubble was the hype around AI and space companies, which inflated their valuations. When that bubble threatened to pop, a new bubble was manufactured through regulatory manipulation. The value of these companies is no longer determined by their ability to produce goods or generate profit. It is determined by the legal requirement that passive funds purchase their shares. The price is propped up by fiat, not by fundamentals. So the the market's natural tendency is to punish bad investments. The response of the billionaire class is not to accept the punishment but to rewrite the rules so that the punishment falls on the working class. This is not a bug in capitalism. It is the system's primary function in its monopoly stage: to protect the oligarchy from the consequences of its own speculative frenzy, and to use the state as a mechanism for transferring wealth from labor to capital. The "free market" is the ideology they preach to the poor. The state-engineered bailout is the reality they live. Here's a breakdown of exactly what will happen and why: First, the IPO itself. SpaceX will sell only about 3-5% of its shares to the public. The remaining 95% stays locked up with insiders for a 90-to-180-day period. This tiny "float" creates an artificial scarcity. When millions of index funds are then legally forced to buy those few shares, the price will spike, generating a completely fictitious valuation. Second, the timing. Under the new NASDAQ rule, SpaceX enters the NASDAQ 100 after just 15 trading days. This triggers the mandatory buying by every passive fund almost immediately. The insiders' lock-up period, however, is much longer. So, for months, the funds keep buying, the price stays elevated by sheer mechanical force, and the insiders watch their paper wealth skyrocket. Third, the exit. When the lock-up finally expires, the insiders sell. But they aren't selling into a normal market where they need to find willing buyers. They are selling into a guaranteed, legally mandated bid provided by the pension funds and 401(k)s that track the index. Every month, working people's retirement contributions flow into these funds, and the funds are required to buy. The insiders simply dump their shares into this river of forced capital. They cash out at the inflated price, long before any collapse. The Collapse Arrives, But Too Late Eventually, reality reasserts itself. Earnings reports show massive losses. Customers continue to flee. The hype evaporates. But by then, the insiders have already sold. Your retirement account now holds the shares. The stock price falls, and your savings take the hit. This isn't a prediction. It's the design. The rules were changed precisely to make this sequence legally mandatory. The oligarchs saw the market's judgment coming, and they rigged the game so that judgment falls on you, not them. Source: https://web.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=26899001749800179&set=a.257313307729052
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago
image A pesquisa da AtlasIntel teve sua divulgação suspendida por decisão do presidente do TSE Kassio Nunes Marques, após pedido do PL, que acusou a pesquisa de ser tendenciosa contra o candidato Flávio Bolsonaro. Rui Costa Pimenta, pré-candidato à presidência da República, comenta na Análise de 3ª, na Rádio Causa Operária: “A censura é errada, evidentemente. As pesquisas todas têm um viés ideológico mais ou menos declarado, então isso não pode ser argumento para invalidar a pesquisa. Caberia ao candidato Flávio Bolsonaro denunciar a pesquisa se ela foi feita de maneira desonesta, excessivamente desonesta – porque desonesta é uma pré-condição da pesquisa. Nós não podemos nos espantar, porque o terreno para esse tipo de coisa está criado há muito tempo. O Alexandre de Moraes, tudo que passou pela cabeça dele, ele censurou; agora veio outro ministro e censurou também. A estrutura jurídica brasileira virou terra de ninguém. A reclamação do pessoal contrário ao Flávio Bolsonaro é inócua, porque eles sempre apoiaram a censura. A pessoa protesta porque é contra ela, não porque é censura.” Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1571326684560654&set=a.527524295607570
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago
image Estonia may have a relatively small economy in absolute size, but it is considered one of the more successful and developed economies among the former Soviet republics. Estonia is among the wealthiest former Soviet republics on a per capita basis. Its living standards have risen dramatically since independence, and the OECD notes that Estonian living standards have roughly doubled since 2000. Capitalism once again rescued a nation from poverty. Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=878704211918302&set=gm.10163402336319601
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Girino Vey! 1 week ago