McCoy's avatar
McCoy
McCoy@primal.net
npub18y33...x5t7
Bitcoin NOSTR block 768722
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
Couldn't Iran just burn oil and mine corn? Yes!!! 1/4 of it and mine all the corn! With Iran's entire daily crude oil output generating roughly 1.76 billion kWh of electricity, and the current global Bitcoin network requiring approximately 800,000–850,000 kWh to mine one Bitcoin (various 2026 estimates put it around 854,400 kWh per coin), you could mine approximately: ~2,000–2,100 Bitcoin per day That's using every single barrel of Iran's ~3.2 million barrels per day of crude production, burned directly into electricity with no other uses. For context: The Bitcoin network as a whole currently produces about 450 new BTC per day (144 blocks × 3.125 BTC block reward). So Iran's daily crude output, if converted entirely to electricity for mining, could power roughly 4–5× the entire current global Bitcoin issuance rate. Annualized: That would be roughly 730,000–770,000 Bitcoin per year, which is actually more than the total annual issuance (~164,000 BTC/year post-halving). In other words, you'd have far more electricity than needed to mine every single new Bitcoin created globally — with plenty left over.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
How the Two Systems (Japan vs US) Interact—and Where They’re Heading (via Maple AI)⬇️ ### 1. The Great Repatriation For decades, near-zero rates in Japan forced insurers and pension funds to chase yield abroad—mainly into U.S. Treasuries. As JGB yields rise (now competitive at ~2.3–2.8%), that incentive is fading. Japanese institutions are already net sellers of foreign securities. **What this means:** The U.S. is losing its most reliable foreign creditor. Reduced Japanese demand is estimated to add **20–50 basis points** to long-term U.S. Treasury yields over time. Washington must either cut deficits, pay more in interest, or find new buyers. ### 2. Policy Divergence and the Yen/Dollar Dance The BoJ is hiking (toward ~1% by late 2026) while the Fed is cutting or on hold. That spread keeps the **dollar strong against the yen** (USD/JPY ~150–160 range). **The tension:** A weaker yen helps Japanese exporters but hurts U.S. competitiveness and inflames trade politics. If Tokyo intervenes to strengthen the yen, it must sell dollar reserves—i.e., **U.S. Treasuries**—which would paradoxically push U.S. yields even higher. Both countries are locked in a feedback loop where Japan’s domestic monetary needs can directly destabilize U.S. borrowing costs. ### 3. The Carry Trade Time Bomb Roughly **$500 billion** in global “carry trades” are funded by cheap yen (borrow yen at low rates, invest in higher-yielding USD assets). As Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, these trades unwind. **The risk:** A rapid unwind forces selling of U.S. assets to cover yen positions, spiking Treasury volatility and temporarily draining liquidity from U.S. markets. We saw a preview of this in early 2026 when JGB yield spikes triggered sharp moves. ### 4. Mutual Vulnerability * **The U.S. needs Japan** to keep its $1.2 trillion in Treasuries stable and to keep rolling them over. * **Japan needs the U.S.** to provide a deep, liquid market where it has historically parked savings—but that need is diminishing as domestic yields improve. In the near future, Japan’s priority will increasingly be **domestic debt stabilization** (managing its own record interest payments) rather than financing the U.S. deficit. This structural shift means the U.S. can no longer count on Japan as a passive sponge for Treasuries. ### Bottom Line Japan’s debt problem is one of **internal sustainability**—can it afford the interest as rates normalize? The U.S. debt problem is one of **global confidence**—can it keep attracting foreign capital as its largest creditors turn inward? The two systems are now on a collision course: Japan’s monetary normalization is slowly removing the floor under U.S. Treasury demand, while America’s borrowing needs have never been larger.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
Jam (JoinMarket) + Lightning. Maple AI recs: Here is what a robust version of your strategy looks like: 1 Withdraw from KYC to Jam mixdepth 0 ✅Day 0 2 Run Maker/Tumbler; let coins cycle through mixdepths ✅Months 0–12 3 Select UTXOs from mixdepth 4 (the cleanest) ✅Month 12 4 Consolidation choice: Open 2–4 moderate channels (0.1–0.5 BTC) using single UTXOs each, OR use a submarine swap for inbound liquidity ✅Month 12–14 5 Operate channels privately (Tor, unannounced if possible); spend via Lightning ✅Ongoing 6 If exiting Lightning: Loop out or swap to on-chain; never close directly to KYC ✅Future 7 Any on-chain remnants get sent back to Jam mixdepth 0 for future rounds ✅Future Bottom Line: Your instinct is correct: mix adequately over a long period, then enter Lightning. This is one of the strongest privacy workflows in Bitcoin. But the Lightning channel open is still a high-sensitivity consolidation event. You must: Avoid merging many UTXOs into one visible transaction Avoid uniquely huge channel sizes Avoid KYC peers Avoid closing back to identified endpoints Do all of that, and Lightning becomes a genuine black hole for your transaction history. Fail at any step, and the analyst simply waits for the on-chain entry or exit to tag you.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
Maple AI: "your right.....the addressable market for Bitcoin isn’t just the $150 trillion in global M2. It’s some large fraction of the monetary premium currently embedded in the $400+ trillion of property, securities, and collectibles. That potentially pushes the equilibrium price far above the simple M2 calculation."
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
CLARITY ACT TAKE: Should we be suprised that the gov/county behind the world reserve money is ultimately NOT friendly to bitcoin developers? Shitcoin VCs + Trumpers + inside grifters pushing CLARITY hard. Fuck them. It will eventually come down to sound money against dying fiat. Chose a side.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
Maple AI on hyperliquid net revenues: Whoa..... So unlike a normal company that keeps fees as profit, the protocol was designed so the core team doesn't take a cut of trading revenue at all. How the team actually gets paid: Their compensation comes entirely from the HYPE token allocation: 23.8% of total supply (~238 million tokens) Worth roughly $9.8 billion at current prices Vesting linearly through 2028 (~9.9M tokens/month) If you roughly annualize that token value, it works out to maybe ~$200M+ per employee per year in vested token value — but that's not "net revenue," it's unrealized equity/token appreciation. Bottom line: There are no public filings showing a corporate P&L. The protocol generates $1B+ in fees, but the team keeps essentially none of it as profit. Any "net revenue per employee" metric would require guessing at their salaries and foundation burn rate, which isn't public.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
21,000,000 That is all. Ignore at your own peril.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
21,000,000 That is all. Ignore at your own peril.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
Still waiting for the high resolution video or photo of the UFOs.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
I miss the "its going up forever Laura Saylor"
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
"Universal high income" is the most retarded thing in the world. At some point someone has to do the work.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
Bitcoin will actually replace the US Dollar.
McCoy's avatar
McCoy 1 month ago
AI take: ✅On a 5-10yr window, AI will underperform real (physical) productivity estimates; like 1/100th less productive than predicted ✅Epic money printing to support it: existential risk / national security ✅ build out of cheap energy to support data centers ✅bubble bursts ✅once cleared of max pain, then the real productivty boom starts: we leverage the few AI things that really help us and have extremely low-cost energy for everything