Here’s the bull case for Twenty One Capital—why this could be a generational bet on Bitcoin infrastructure: ⸻ 1. Third-Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder – Instant Credibility • Launching with 42,000+ BTC puts it just behind MicroStrategy and Marathon, giving it immediate name recognition and relevance in institutional Bitcoin circles. • Investors looking for direct BTC exposure without ETF constraints may flock to it—especially if it trades at a discount to NAV. ⸻ 2. Jack Mallers = The Bitcoin Maximalist’s Champion • Mallers isn’t just a figurehead—he’s deeply embedded in Bitcoin payment infrastructure (Strike). • His leadership can attract top talent, retail loyalty, and Bitcoin-native institutional partners. • He’s publicly aligned with Bitcoin’s ethos: open, decentralized, self-sovereign money—something institutions increasingly want exposure to. ⸻ 3. Strategic Investors with Deep Pockets • Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor Fitzgerald are no small players. • Tether brings access to liquidity and stablecoin rails. • SoftBank injects credibility in Asia and emerging markets. • Cantor opens doors to Wall Street pipelines and compliance infrastructure. ⸻ 4. Bitcoin-Native Financial Infrastructure = Blue Ocean • Twenty One isn’t just buying BTC—it plans to create Bitcoin-denominated capital markets. • Metrics like Bitcoin per Share (BPS) and Bitcoin Return Rate (BRR) could become standards for BTC-native companies. • If successful, this sets a new financial paradigm where Bitcoin is not just an asset—but the unit of account. ⸻ 5. The SPAC Route Could Be a Trojan Horse • SPACs are hated right now—but that’s the point. • If this trades at a discount to BTC NAV, it gives value investors and Bitcoiners a liquid, tax-advantaged entry point. • Could attract activist investors, especially if they hold real BTC versus paper claims (unlike ETFs). ⸻ 6. Network Effects from Partnerships • Potential @strike Strike + Tether + Cantor integrations could enable: • Global payments (via Strike) • BTC-backed credit markets • Bitcoin-native treasuries for emerging market firms • Twenty One could monetize Bitcoin beyond hodling—as a base layer for financial services. ⸻ 7. Regulatory Moat Over Time • The alliance with Cantor and SoftBank gives it a leg up on navigating U.S. regulation. • If stablecoins or Bitcoin infrastructure firms get licenses, Twenty One could be first to market with Bitcoin-native ETFs, insurance, lending, etc. ⸻ Bottom Line (Bull View): Twenty One isn’t just long BTC—it’s long Bitcoin as a monetary system. If executed right, this becomes the Berkshire Hathaway of Bitcoin, building and acquiring BTC-native infrastructure while the rest of TradFi plays catch-up.

Here’s the bear case for Twenty One Capital—why this new Bitcoin-native venture could underperform or unravel: ⸻ 1. Bitcoin Exposure = Volatility Amplifier • Holding 42,000+ BTC at launch makes Twenty One a leveraged bet on BTC price. • If Bitcoin corrects 30–50%, Twenty One’s equity could collapse, echoing what happened to MSTR in past drawdowns. • Lack of diversified assets makes them vulnerable to macro risk (Fed tightening, ETF outflows, etc.). ⸻ 2. Tether Involvement = Trust Issue • Tether (USDT) still faces transparency and regulatory scrutiny around reserve backing. • If Tether faces a serious legal or liquidity event, Twenty One could suffer reputational and financial contagion, given their ownership stake. • Critics may view the venture as an attempt to use Bitcoin optics to whitewash existing risk exposure. ⸻ 3. SoftBank’s History with Tech Bets • SoftBank has a mixed track record (e.g., WeWork, Katerra, Oyo). Backing high-conviction, high-volatility companies without clear exit paths. • Their involvement signals capital, not necessarily strategic soundness. ⸻ 4. Public Markets & Regulatory Pressure • Taking this company public via SPAC invites intense SEC scrutiny. • Bitcoin-denominated metrics like “BPS” and “BRR” are unorthodox—could be misunderstood or rejected by institutional investors. • Regulatory crackdowns on crypto firms, stablecoins, or self-custody could force structural changes. ⸻ 5. Mallers as CEO = Binary Risk • @jack mallers is visionary, but not tested at the helm of a multi-billion dollar public company. • Strike has had limited success scaling beyond Bitcoin maxis. • Execution risk is high—can he pivot from startup rebel to corporate leader? ⸻ 6. The SPAC Curse • SPACs have a terrible track record post-merger. Most drop 50–90% within 24 months. • Investors might front-run redemptions, especially if BTC drops during de-SPAC window. ⸻ 7. Lack of Product or Revenue Strategy • Owning Bitcoin is not a business model. • If no real Bitcoin-native financial services (custody, yield, payments) are offered, it’s just another BTC ETF with overhead. ⸻ Bottom Line (Bear View): Twenty One might be a Bitcoin ETF wearing a hoodie. Unless it builds real infrastructure, it’s exposed to BTC downside, SPAC dilution, and regulatory risk—with limited upside if it’s just a holding vehicle.

😬

J = (Σᵗ(Δᵢ • πᵢ) + β₁·BTC + β₂·MSTR + λ·F) / (R + C)

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Jerome to the rescue

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Below 200D moving average #chatgpt

Aye @strike #plebchain

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Weeee

Lutnick rn #btfd

#amen