⚠️ The #HYG / #TLT (adjusted) ratio just printed a gravestone doji on the 4-month chart. All oscillators on this timeframe are as over-extended as they've ever been. A reversal is likely coming in 2024. This is a major #recession warning. This ratio tops in the lead up to an economic recession, and it bottoms near business cycle lows. This chart is warning that we're likely near a major market top. #Bonds / #Treasury / #Fed / #FOMC / #InterestRates / #AAPL / #TSLA / #MSFT / #NVDA / #Recession / #Stagflation / #Bitcoin / #Trading / #Investing / #Gold / #Nostr

Invesco DB Energy Fund DBE just formed an inverted hammer on the 6-month candlestick timeframe. This may be signaling a major reversal (though it won't necessarily happen right away). #DBE's overall structure on this timeframe is a bull flag (shaded in red). Price has descended to and is appearing to find support on the EMA ribbon. #Energy is likely to break out right as we head into a recession, which could cause strong stagflation. #Commodities / #Gold / #Bitcoin / #Inflation

Breakwave Dry Bulk #Shipping ETF tracks the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures. Following the start of the #Israel-#Hamas war, it has jumped over 150% from its bottom in July. This is not something you want to see right before #interest rate cuts. #Commodity / #Inflation / #Recession / #Stagflation / #Trading / #Investing

The McClellan Volume Summation Index reaches its highest level in over a year. It's now in extreme greed territory. #SPY / #SPX / #SP500 / #Trading

The #VIX is sending mixed signals as we head into 2024. #Bullish divergence has been occurring throughout 2023 on the weekly VIX chart, which would typically indicate a #volatility spike is potentially coming. However, during this same timeframe, hidden #bearish divergence also occurred.

In the next recession the bottom of the graphic will occur... #Bitcoin / #BTC / #Stack / #Sats

Economists are totally stumped about why #consumer sentiment remains so low despite a 'robust #economy', but the answer may be simple. Here's a chart of consumer sentiment with the #dilution of the #monetary base as an overlay (in red). Consumers are feeling the pain of having their purchasing power diluted, and thus their sentiment is low. In other words, sentiment has been correlating with (real) purchasing power. The #Fed has been using the #CPI to paint a much better picture of inflation than is actually occurring. The problem for the Fed is that even though it can try to downplay the real rate of #inflation, consumers are sensing that inflation is much worse than is being reported and this is being reflected in sentiment data. With that said, if you think things are bad now, currency inflation is poised to get far worse in the years ahead as the ratio of interest on public debt to #GDP spirals higher... Note: To illustrate the dilution of purchasing power I used the formula: 1/(WALCL-RRPONTTLD-WTREGEN). This formula represents the value of one U.S. dollar relative to the total monetary base. The expression #WALCL-#RRPONTTLD-#WTREGEN reflects the assets on the Fed's balance sheet that determine the monetary base.

#Ether appears to be printing two gravestone dojis in a row on the 2-week candlestick chart. If this pattern is confirmed, a retracement is likely at the start of 2024. The last time a similar pattern formed, #ETH corrected about 15%. #ETHUSD / #Ethereum / #ETHUSDT / #ERC20

The Regional #Banking ETF ( #KRE ) is currently testing the monthly EMA ribbon from below. Not out of the woods if price cannot overcome this important resistance level. During the Global #Financial Crisis, the monthly EMA ribbon acted as resistance.

Although the #Fed has ostensibly been tightening monetary conditions due to inflation, this year actually experienced a significant increase in the monetary base. As of the time of writing, 2023 has seen the 6th largest increase in percentage terms and the 4th largest increase in nominal terms of any year since the Great #Recession. This is, in large part, why risk assets have rallied strongly this year.

Multiple bearish divergences are occurring on the higher timeframe charts of #SPY This chart shows the bearish divergence that appears to be forming on the weekly timeframe. Notice that the weekly RSI is at a very important trend line. Bearish divergences are also occurring on the monthly, quarterly, and even yearly charts. #SPX / #SP500

One of the problems of generative #AI is that it's not open-source. Centralized control of AI is a major threat.

The #SPY is still on track to print a bearish reversal candlestick on its weekly chart. #SPX / #SPY / #SP500

The 10-year U.S. #Treasury bond yield is looking poised to close its 6-month candlestick with a gravestone doji. This bearish candlestick formation suggests that yields will fall in 2024. However, since long-term resistance is flipping to support, Treasury yields may resurge in the years ahead as inflation also resurges. The coming recession is likely to be stagflationary.

There will come a time when people work their entire lives to try to accumulate 1,000,000 Sats.

Just want to say thank you to all the wonderful people on here who have supported me over the past month! Thank you not just for your support, but also for just being on #Nostr. I appreciate that this platform even exists and that there are so many like-minded, #freedom-loving people.

In 2024, the #Fed will be faced with a Catch-22. It will need to pivot and ease monetary conditions and cut rates as #liquidity issues mount and growth slows. But simultaneously, it will also need to keep monetary conditions tight and rates high as inflationary pressures resurge. With the general election ahead, political pressure will mount on the central #bank to curtail the high inflation that it caused by creating excessive amounts of new fiat currency. One thing is for certain: The central bank will continue to underreport #inflation (see chart). The situation will get much worse in the years and decades ahead as public debt exceeds total #GDP by more and more. Interest payments alone will begin to take up much of the budget and central banks will increasingly turn to fiat currency creation to finance the debt, which is inflationary. De-dollarization and the abandonment of #Treasury bonds as a risk-free asset will further accelerate inflation. Ultimately, #Bitcoin will become the global risk-free asset because of its immutable scarcity and its status as a fully auditable public ledger that is incorruptible. Rather than try to fight Bitcoin, central banks ought to embrace Bitcoin since it will ultimately solve the problems that they created. All fiat currencies have ended in hyperinflation, and this time will be no different.

Posted my first article on #Habla -- check it out!

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The 10-year/3-month #Treasury yield spread is about to print a reversal doji on the 6-month chart. Typically recessions (shaded in red) begin when this spread moves substantially higher. Earlier this year, the NY #Fed, using this chart as a recession predictor, placed the odds of a U.S. #recession starting by May 2024 at 70%. This was the strongest recession signal in over 40 years. See more here:

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A massive bearish shooting star is appearing on the quarterly chart of #SPY / #IWM The tail of the shooting star tagged the peak level reached during the Dotcom Bubble (depicted by the black line in the chart). It's likely that this ratio has peaked and is about to roll over. We may be at the start of what will be years of large-cap underperformance relative to small-cap. This does not necessarily mean that the Russell 2000 will rally from here on out, instead it's a warning that the large-cap stocks that comprise the SPY have a lot to lose in the coming recession -- even more than already hard-hit small-cap stocks. #SPX / #RUT / #smallcap / #mag7