The #IWM / #SPY ratio is forming a major shooting star pattern on its 3-month chart. We're likely nearing the period when the S&P 500 begins to underperform #smallcap. This is a warning for #Mag7 #AAPL / #NVDA / #AMZN / #MSFT

The S&P 500 is now at a major area of resistance against the money supply (M2). $SPY / #SPX / #SPY / #SP500

The price of gold is believed to be manipulated down because of bad accounting whereby gold leased by the central bank is double counted to inflate supply and bring down the price. Since the full ledger of gold is obscured, this allows gold's price to be artificially suppressed by those who control its ledger and who have a vested interest in propping up the value of fiat currency over hard money like gold. However, this cannot occur for Bitcoin without the bad accounting being easily detected due to the fully public and decentralized nature of its ledger. This is why the #SEC has a major problem in approving a Bitcoin spot ETF. There is no easy way to manipulate its price down since Bitcoin's ledger is, by design, not easily controllable. The irony in all of this is that price manipulation is what the SEC has cited as a reason for its hesitancy to approve the ETF. Yet, the opposite is more likely the real reason for its hesitancy: the price of Bitcoin is resistant to downward manipulation against the dollar, which is what the SEC is actually concerned about. If they permit a Bitcoin spot ETF, then it undermines the entire fiat-based #TradFi system.

Here's a challenge for you: Figure out how to measure your investment portfolio's long-term performance using #Bitcoin as the unit of value measurement rather than fiat currency.

2023 performance #Bitcoin #QQQ #SPY #TLT

Here's the real reason why the SEC doesn't want a #Bitcoin spot ETF... No one would invest in the fiat system anymore.

Here's a seasonality chart for December and my market analysis for 2024 and beyond: The S&P 500 has rallied throughout most of the year, and that trend is likely to generally continue into the close of the year. However, the yield curve is deeply inverted and the VIX futures term structure is in a deep contango. These indicate that we're at the end of a business cycle. In early 2024, the Fed will likely pivot. Once reverse repos (#RRPs) reach zero, the Fed will no longer be able to continue balance sheet roll-offs at the current pace. Futures charts are already showing early signs of pricing in Fed cuts. Indeed, the U.S. monetary base is already reaching the highest levels since the Fed began tightening. Stagflation, which is already occurring in some countries, will likely begin in the U.S. in 2024. Commodity prices, including gold, will break out as soon as central banks resume monetary easing. The slow deflation and disinflation that we've seen throughout 2023 have merely formed the flag portion of a bull flag pattern for commodities on the higher timeframe. Eventually, higher commodity prices will push up #PPI and the underreported #CPI. Bitcoin -- which is a digital commodity -- will likely rally along with other commodities. Bitcoin's #S2F and market cap will surpass that of gold in the coming years, as it continues its trajectory of becoming the new risk-free asset and the unit of account. By late 2024 and 2025, altcoins will begin to outperform Bitcoin as they typically do at that stage of the halving cycle. Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. are beginning to break out. In prior business cycles, the Fed has usually begun cutting rates before jobless claims break out. This time around, the Fed has hiked us right into a breakout. Given the lagging effect of monetary policy, the Fed has positioned us well for higher unemployment rates in 2024 and beyond. Severe stagflation is likely coming. During this period, geopolitical conflict becomes more likely. In turn, increasing geopolitical conflict can worsen stagflation as countries share less of their scarce resources by imposing export restrictions, and as countries allocate a higher amount of their GDP into destroying the means of production of other countries, making all countries worse off. Not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.

Check out my article on the future price action of Bitcoin and its tendency to become the new risk-free asset:

The Bitcoin Corridor for INDEX:BTCUSD by SpyMasterTrades — TradingView

Today, the trading volume for the SPY was the lowest in 3 years, and the 4th lowest in 18 years. This is anomalous even for an early holiday close. The spread between the high and the low, as a percentage, was the lowest since 2017, and the 5th lowest ever for the SPY. Three dojis have appeared in a row, which can often signal an exhaustion of a trend and a potential reversal. However, the #SPY is heading into a typically bullish seasonal period of the year.

Reverse repos ( #RRPs ) continue to collapse. They're now approaching 900B. The clock is ticking for the #Fed to pivot. At the current rate, including end-of-year window dressing, RRPs will likely be completely unwound no later than around February 2024. After this point in time, the Fed will, as a mathematical certainty, need to pivot (failure to do so will otherwise cause massive #liquidation spirals to raise cash). A significant economic downturn is coming due to the extreme monetary tightening that occurred in 2022 and 2023. It is overwhelmingly likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024. The current prolonged 10y/3m yield curve inversion hints that the coming recession will also be prolonged. Right now, however, much of the market is believing the soft landing narrative. A soft landing always seems most plausible right after the central bank stops tightening but before the effects of that tightening result in an economic recession. Unlike recessions in the past several decades, the coming economic recession will be characterized by high inflation (i.e. stagflation). Inflation will be amplified after the Fed pivots back to monetary easing. The inflationary situation will get far worse in the years and decades ahead as interest payments on public debt spiral higher while #GDP growth slows. The combination of these factors will necessitate explosive growth in the currency supply, resulting in yet even higher inflation. During this phase, the price of #Bitcoin will spiral higher, unnerving central banks. Countries at the forefront of the hyperinflationary spiral will begin to outright adopt a Bitcoin standard, while those countries most entrenched in power under the current fiat system will more strongly oppose #Bitcoin and decentralized ledgers in general. Perhaps most alarming is the need for central banks and central governments to find a scapegoat for the catastrophe they've created. Often that scapegoat becomes an opposing nation-state, raising the prospects of #war.

Setting up my Nostr