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Volume is key to calling a Bull or Bear market turn. We’ve got neither yet. So we’re likely about to rebound up. But your mileage may vary.

Everyone should have two or three Icebreaker jokes for any occasion. Which are essentially kid’s jokes. But always avoid puns (excepting the jk rolling joke below). And 97% of kid’s jokes are just puns, the lowest form of humour. It’s a valuable social skill in new and uncomfortable situations.

Icebreaker jokes for any occasion: (I love this one because it was a racist joke from Hustler magazine that I always remembered but could never tell, then I decided to to redeem it.) A Second-Grader walks into the Library, she has a parrot on her head. The Librarian says “Where did you get that?” The Parrot says “Bwwaakk…outside on the playground. There’s lots of them.”

Icebreaker jokes for any occasion: My grandma went to the bank today to check her balance. The teller pushed her over.

Icebreaker jokes for any occasion: How does Harry Potter go downhill? Walking. jk rolling.

Volume is the prime indicator. And it’s meh. So either this sell-off is fake Bitcoin, or it’s only just begun to plummet. This smells, to me, like a winnowing of the chaff. A shot over the bow for Fiat “Wall St” finance. We’ll see when they begin to bring out the body bags.

There are 3 Questions now. 1) Does the World not want Bitcoin that much? 2) Is Bitcoin forecasting something bad about to happen? 3) Are money managers such a circle-jerk of fiat retardation that they can’t separate good assets from bad? Your guess is as good as mining right now.

Did’ja feel it? Gold is telling us Fiat is about to break, and Bitcoin is telling us Fiat (via speculation) is breaking. Greatest disconnect of our lifetime, imo. The conundrum is that almost no one is on the sidelines anymore. The play of Fiat v Bitcoin is already in motion, and unfortunately theres a LOT more players on the Fiat team. So hodl tight. It’s going to be exciting for awhile. I’ve long been on record for saying the Cycles were broken. I don’t think they’re broken anymore. I think they’re experiencing an Interval. And Intervals are fundamental to significant change. nostr:note1kqp740mlqutzsp8fh9g22ay4djfcm8s47jgf4m48kysnmtpjs9tsu4vk4c

Worthless Money is an Ocean we all swim, breathe and live in. We all swim, breathe and live in. Bitcoin is still a bubble. A life-saving, yet tiny bubble.

Here’s what we know “first principles”-wise on Bitcoin price action: 1) Everyone - EVERYONE - who understands Bitcoin has gone full into Bitcoin. So DCA is a minor - but an ongoing and fundamentally important - factor. This is something “Investmentland” doesn’t understand. 2) The new money coming from “Investmentland”, which ramped the fiat price up above $100k the last couple years, is now looking elsewhere because fiat does fiat. But they don’t have anywhere else to look, and they realize that. Hence gold/silver. 3) The Bitcoin network is unstoppable, so it will continue to grow. Development on the network will continue to grow. Bitcoin is the Bull in every china shop. 4) “OG Selling” has likely been a minor influence over the past few months, and will continue to wain as major OG’s were never KYC and selling triggers serious attention from gov’t entities. I personally don’t think this is much of a thing beyond those bartering Bitcoin for real estate et al assets in El Salvador. Selling pressure is coming from elsewhere, which brings us to… 5) “Paper Bitcoin” is something no one can measure. Yet if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck…it will eventually explode like a duck. Paper Bitcoin is undoubtedly rampant. Rampant. Remember when literally No One knew FTX existed? That’s where we are now. And there’s only one preparation for that: Self-Custody. Something will likely implode soon. It feels that way to me, and if it feels that way to you as well, then anything on exchange or in lending services is collateral damage. 6) Bitcoin is abiding. 7) We need to always be aligning our journey with Bitcoin.

I’ve long wondered about the blinders early Bitcoiners, investors in Bitcoin start-ups, and Bitcoin devs seemed to have about exactly Who is responsible for the essential code changes. I’ve speculated over the last year or more that this is the most likely attack vector. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYZ4MNqLeFg

Here’s the skinny: Wall St(tm)/ETF’s brought Bitcoin to $100k. But they are Fiat, so by definition they are now the dumbest people in the room. Bitcoin is in the hands of retards. For awhile. Until Nation States, Sovereign funds, Pension funds enter the space. These are people who don’t play games, just need predictable returns to run their business. Yes, they’re advised by Wall St(tm). But for decades they’ve been buying Wall Street’s cast-off sloppy seconds. For their manager’s idyllic trips to wherever. That’s a long road to travail, probably more than a “4 year cycle”. The trust in shitcoiners like Goldman Sachs is going to break. Not soon, but it will happen because it’s unavoidable. The headwinds to Bitcoin right now come from Bitcoiners living off Bitcoin, and the inarguable paper Bitcoin in play. Both of those WILL be transitory. The wresting of Bitcoin from the hands of Wall St(tm) to Sovereign investment will be impressive. When it comes.

The “First Follower” video of shirtless dancing guy is iconic, and if you don’t know you need to know…so go now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ ——————————————————————————— The place Bitcoin is right now, imo, is the Third Followers phase. Everyone reading this was likely a Second Follower. Wall St became the Third Follower, but is still only dancing on the periphery waiting to see if a scene is actually happening. Next comes Nation States, Sovereign funds, etc.

PSA: If you’ve never seen the movie “Network”, I’m hoping you’ll do yourself a favor and experience what many have called the greatest screenplay ever filmed. Trust me. You have no idea what this 50 year old movie continues to reveal about our culture.

Technical Analysis as we know it developed in a Fiat system. Therefore - and by definition - it breaks under a sound-money, deflationary money transition. The basic concepts, ideas and measurements still hold, but they have to be recalculated from the ground up to provide meaningful action. For instance, the Bitcoin bull-market of Jan 2024 to Dec 2025 was a classic bull market. But the Bear Market Bitcoin entered in May of 2025 has still yet to be recognized as a classic Bear Market - in a sound-money system. tl;dr - Bear Markets now go sideways w/ reduced volatility until conditions usher in a new Bull run.

The extravagantly Wealthy have never cared about currency fluctuations, monetary policy, interest rates, market fluctuations et al. Not for generations. What they HAVE always cared about is asset stability & secure yield. None of that is available to them anymore. None of it. This is why they (and we) are all recognizing that the financial gyroscope is careening too, too wildly. If you’re selling Bitcoin right now, you’re so far ahead of the curve you’re losing. I get it, but please…let your profits run. Just another couple years or so. Because every financial manager, organization, nation state, etc is zero-ing in on the same unassailable conclusion:

If I could pass on one broad-brushed recognition to anyone interested in Bitcoin, as a trad-fi professional from the early 1990’s: When anything has ever happened in trad-fi, everyone looked to a news outlet or other localized source (if we knew good ones) to help them figure out what was happening. That’s because in Trad-Fi, almost nothing happened that YOU as “RETAIL” would or could ever know beforehand. Thus Trad-Fi has been honed over a century in a myriad crazy-making ways to find and pay attention to outside sources to play catch-up. This is something Bitcoiners don’t understand yet, and need to. If you’ve heard the name Bloomberg, you might understand how profitable “telling people what is happening as quickly as possible” was. Bitcoin is outside this world. Entirely and Authentically. Nothing (long-term) happens in Bitcoin that is known by others beforehand. Read those last sentences again. Please. I didn’t type this because I’m getting paid. Yes, every Bitcoiner knows without question that Bitcoin is an innovation far more than an investment. And yes, Retail doesn’t control Bitcoin anymore, Institutional Investing does. Bitcoin was never created to be a token. Get that idea out of your head, entirely. Bitcoin was created to become a NETWORK that could perpetuate monetary value globally and automatically without corruption indefinitely. Understanding this, I can say that I personally have stopped looking to any outside news org to tell me why or what is happening in Bitcoin. Because the token is a distraction and a brief plaything of those who have the power at the moment. The Network is the Camel. And God Willing, it will pass through the eye of the needle. Whatever happens with Bitcoin the token, know that it is only reacting and reflecting what is real, and what has not yet become obvious to anyone else, but will eventually and equally. That said, yes. Institutions are absolutely influencing Bitcoin’s token-price. And this will continue until Nation States rug-pull the Institutions. Then Nation States will influence Bitcoin’s token-price. Until they get rug-pulled. tl’dr: don’t look for news to tell you what’s happening with Bitcoin’s price. Look to Bitcoin’s price to understand what is about to be recognized in the IRL.

Mark my words, Bitcoin is going to be really popular again at $95,000. So gird thy loins.

A few months ago I used Bitcoin to fund 3 loans to buy a home that had a quick closing. It took maybe an hour, over time. (I went with Debifi). My credit score obv never came into play, only my pristine collateral. The mortgage finally came through 2 1/2 months later, which I used to buy back Bitcoin at a worse price. Because Banking hasn’t been able to fucking streamline mortgages in over 100 years. Bitcoin IS BUILDING an industry that makes modern banking a laughable joke. nostr:note1zjqsyzu2v20anuyfznxxltzwq793epmrtthhzxkyzeul0prs2nrqk0c5js

Here’s a 1 Year chart of WTI Crude priced in Bitcoin. (Longer-term charts are ridiculously over-weighted, but arguably don’t reflect the entry of Investment Houses and Corporations into Bitcoin, so let’s focus on just the past year). This is LITERALLY the only chart that matters: The world’s most important material resource priced in the world’s most important monetary resource. EVERYTHING else is noise. THIS is signal. Countries not stacking Bitcoin are not going to make it.