Q2 of the 4-year cycle: the #Bitcoin Halving.
therationalroot
therationalroot@nostr.directory
npub1r00t...sqe8
#Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis. Signal only.
Follow the carrot down the rabbit hole.
ETFs update: Net outflow of ~3k #BTC due to GBTC.
-Price held up well, given the outflows.
-No direct rotation from GBTC to IBIT.
Bitcoin at $72.5k,
Short-Term Holder cost basis at $58k (All-Time High).
Halving progress 99%. #Bitcoin
The next Halving will gradually reduce the available supply for trade over the next 4 years, with an estimated impact of ~6%. Its impact is diminishing but remains significant. #Bitcoin
BlackRock likely to flip Grayscale by the Halving. #Bitcoin
On-chain value map: heavy overvalued now at $123k and rising.
Significant ETF inflows are back, noticeable pressure on price, and people are still bearish. Also, BlackRock reached 250k BTC in AUM.
Price impact of ETFs Flows:
ETF flows are a major driver, below the change in cumulative BTC holdings vs. the change in price.
ETF Inflows are back! Looking forward to what today brings! #Bitcoin
Outflows continue at Grayscale but are offset by Fidelity and other ETFs. With markets closed over the weekend and a neutral start to the week, Bitcoin has maintained its upward trajectory. #Bitcoin 
Full week of net outflows due to Grayscale and reduced inflows. BlackRock will flip Grayscale within a couple of weeks.
Halving progress 98%. #Bitcoin
Outflows out of grayscale continue, but more importantly, during this dip, the 9 other ETFs have shown consistent inflows.
ETFs update: Yesterday, we saw a large net outflow of 5.3k #BTC, obviously contributing to the $5k drawdown in price.
Important observation: yesterday's numbers show Grayscale outflows did not rotate into BlackRock.
Giant GBTC outflows, 9.5k #BTC.
Since ETF approval, 250,000 BTC have flowed out of Grayscale. This substantial sell pressure was mostly offset by other ETFs' inflows. We were overdue for a pullback, and yesterday, and likely today, outflows are in charge.
Nonetheless, large inflows to BlackRock!
$100k before the Halving?
Pack it up guys, it's over. #Bitcoin crashed.
Avg. ETFs Net Inflow: +4.4k BTC/Day 🤯
Order of magnitude of 1st Halving.
ETFs Net Inflow: +14.6k BTC
-Massive inflows to BlackRock: +11.9k!
-Reduced outflows of Grayscale 👀
