Econ guy Konrad

"I need to clean up my diet" I think, knowing full well i'm slamming a pack of IPAs this afternoon

It's hard not to be a techno optimist in this timeline

Rescinding SAB 121 might allow banks to serve bitcoin users Bitcoin has been serving bank users since 2009

Lasagne for lunch and a couple of glasses of wine for this avo 😎 carnivore maxis absolutely cannot even

Alex Hormozi talks about doing the reps Tom Bilyeu talks about developing a growth mindset These guys are awesome but they're well past the beginner stage What do you do if you've got level 10 skibidi brainrot or you're living too far in the future in your head dreaming about bitcoin at $400m in 2050? Just like if you were 37 years old and have never lifted a barbell - you start at bodyweight squats, progress to kettlebell goblet squats, empty barbell and soon enough you're stacking your bodyweight on the bar in plates But what's the entrepreneurial version of this? What do you do as a 37 year old who's never built anything? Let alone made even a buck outside of contemporary employment? You start with bodyweight squats - write 10 ideas a day - I unashamedly stole this from James Altucher They don't have to be good, they just shouldn't be gibberish. One of mine today was a GPT agent wrapper that gets official statistics and fits an ARIMA forecast on them Neurons that fire together wire together, train your mind to generate possible solutions to need experiences Because thats a fundamental component of the entrepreneuroal function

How the hell did fiatjaf come up with nostr? how the hell did jack dorsey come up with twitter? how the hell did satoshi come up with bitcoin? how the hell did your favourite musician come up with your favourite song? i dunno but one way to train yourself to have more ideas is literally to sit and write 10 ideas a day they can be anything, its a meditative practice just working the mind if you're really stuck then combine arbitrary objects and concepts and refine into something not jibberish focus on generation of ideas dont self censor or prematurely decide they're good or bad one of mine today was literally to write this post

Absolute legend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkgEcZIqUC4&ab_channel=TheWillRamos

I don't know what the issu is but i still can't send zaps Could be WoS? What other options for a Lightning Address are there apart from running my own node?

Anon, you always have the right to ignore the State

Looking for more metal/rock/power metal/deathcore/metalcore/progressive metal concept albums So far: Nightfall In Middle Earth - Blind Guardian Beyond the Red Mirror - Blind Guardian The Power of the Nightstar - Dragonland V, the new mythology suite - Symphony X Pain Remains - Lorna Shore Honorable mention because I appreciate the musicianship, talent, and groundbreaking innovation but it's just not very often my cup of tea: Pink Floyd

This album is so fucking good man https://open.spotify.com/album/1WuqlDJb7Z2ipBhM6ww7QI?si=aLvB9cMZRu2oqndq9Plv1w

Random Sunday lesson: using GPT for code as someone who is not a software engineer. My coding experience so far has been; a couple of beginner Python courses, R to query and process microdata and build several forecasting/econometric models, and Python to model a VPP optimisation problem. This has been a journey of self-directed learning, and much kludging™. But in the last year, the release of GPT-O1 preview (and now GPT-O1) allowed me to stretch my basic understanding to build more complex models as part of my work at Blockspace Energy. I was able to parlay what I knew about coding in R and Python to work with GPT to build a model in C++ (the first version in Python ran way too slowly - GPT suggested C++ would be faster, which it was) What I learned from that is worth sharing; it was a "prompt engineering" methodology (specific words chosen for engagement algorithm 🤣) Anyway, through trial and error, I found the best process for me was: In a .txt file (which I usually save as "GPT_context.txt") 1) write out the overall intention of the model as detailed as you can, including suggested methodology 2) ask GPT to come up with a plan 3) copy the plan as plaintext into your .txt file 4) prompt GPT with the intention + the plan and request to start with the first item on the plan 5) paste in the code into your .txt file 6) prompt GPT with "here's the context we are working on, our plan, and the code we have so far. And here's the next change I want to make" and describe your required change (bug fixes or upgrades) 7) continue that with each step of the plan until your programme works as intended I usually include a request that GPT outputs the full code and context it suggests to change, otherwise it can skip over details and comment "\\...insert code here..." which is frustrating if you don't catch it and can confuse both yourself and GPT. Basically I think the main lesson is to manage GPT's context window manually. It does seem like a toddler at this point - incredibly intelligent but loses context and hallucinates easily. I don't expect GPT-O3 or above to require this level of context window management. What are some good "AI" query tips or techniques you've discovered?

With 2024 over it’s time for an obligatory “thought-leader” reflective cringepost. I want to give you a peek into what the hell an economist *does* in tech. I’ve been “in tech” for almost two years now, working with a few kiwi startups doing ridiculously awesome stuff. The day to day looks mostly like everyone else’s day to day; sit at the PC, argue with GPT (and lose), fight with spreadsheets (and lose). But what’s produced as an economist “in tech” is quite unique. Tech I’ve been involved with is all about platforms; software platforms, network platforms, market platforms. The idea is always to bring two or more groups together to create some sort of exchange (information, money, memes, all three). What are platforms? Platforms are about augmenting/combining (or replacing) an existing institution within the system of exchange. It could be governance, marketplaces, contracts and escrow, or any of the millions of institutions we can identify and even more that we can’t. The important contrast I want to highlight is that contrast with what might be thought of as general tools. Think of like Excel, R, Stata, MYOB. Very useful technology, but not fundamentally about bringing multiple groups of people together. How does the economist facilitate value in tech? Understanding tools is about the user experience and the user’s goals. From a very narrow PoV of economics, it’s about communicating to policymakers how many people you employ to create the tool and then how much GDP the tool spits out. Or maybe it’s about couching the tool within policy goals and narratives. These are all incredibly valuable insights. But what I want to highlight is that understanding platforms is more about understanding the institution within the system of exchange that your platform augments. Institutions emerge from repeated interactions, so what repeated interactions is your platform facilitating or creating? Which makes it about understanding the narratives of human decisions/choices within the system of exchange. How do the users make decisions within that system of exchange and then how does your platform facilitate that? I think it’s uniquely the science of human action, economics, that can offer insights in this sphere. Now, turn on your Bitcoin node and get back to work

I can recieve but not send zaps I have WoS connected to my NOSTR I can receive zaps, just got one earlier, but I can't send them. Is there any way to find an error log or somnething to tell me what's going on?

Generative products + generative marketplaces https://hunterhastings.com/mohammad-keyhani-implications-of-generativity-for-entrepreneurship-and-strategy/ I recently found this article/podcast episode by Hunter Hastings about generative products and generative marketplaces so yesterday I read a bit deeper and I wanted to share some thoughts. According to Dr M. Keyhani a generative product has four identifying characteristics:Leverage: the product can to be used for various purposes it’s about utility and versatility – looking at the pre-built features of the product. Adaptability: the product is flexible and can be customised to a broad range of uses – looking at the potential for reconfiguration of the product by users. Ease of mastery: the product is relatively simple for a broad range of users to pick up and use to positive effect.Transferability: the product allows users to share their innovations openly and build upon one another’s work. Some examples: Roblox, Excel, Elder Scrolls 5: Skyrim, Gary’s Mod, VR Chat, Lego, Zapier Also according to Dr M. Keyhani (with me paraphrasing) a generative marketplace is one where: User generated innovation is the primary purpose and the structure of the marketplace is built to facilitate that. The marketplace is designed to match problems and solutions through the actions and behaviour of users, usually without the marketplace owner directing. Some examples: Amazon, app stores (Google Play, Apple), shopping malls, Twitter/X, NOSTR For me, the obvious most advantageous implication of generative products and marketplaces is that it shifts the burden of innovation from the entrepreneur to the users, both potentially reducing resource investment and capturing a wider breadth of knowledge and ideation/creativity. Kind of a holy grail that people are chasing right now is using blockchains to combine generative products and generative marketplaces. On the generative product side we’ve got multiple examples of companies creating GUIs and platforms that allow users to create digital objects (pictures, trees, swords, RC cars). As for generative markets, at the moment it looks like the GUIs and platforms that allow users to create the products are also allowing users to market and exchange those products.And so far what we’ve seen as the biggest value for users of this is the facilitation of gambling (humans love gambling) and the ability for people who build a reputation to short-sell that reputation. But what else is possible if we can crack the combination of generative products and generative markets? One narrative i've heard several times and always been sceptical of is that creating a world like the movie Ready Player One is valuable. Where people can earn a sword in one game and transfer that seemlessly to another. Will this ever happen? Is it what consumers want? What else can we do if we can combine generative products with generative markets? I don’t know, so I’ll keep reading and thinking about it.

I posted the idea that "what is a good?" is subjective yesterday over on Linkedin. Basically, because value is an experience it only exists in someone's consciousness, so a thing is a good if someone acts (makes choices and decisions purposefully) as if it is. Examples include: the brie cheese in my fridge, clearly a good because I acted (choosing to buy it with the purpose of having brie cheese) as if it was a good. In contrast, we know there is a planet that is hypothesised to be made of diamond (https://lnkd.in/g-UHyfTY). But no one is acting (making decisions and choices) as if it is a good, so it is not. Despite it being composed of a material usually associated with high value. The logic also applies to costs*; costs are experienced. They are the value we might have experienced but chose to sacrifice to pursue some other chosen end. Why this matters is that if you're selling something it might be wise to understand what the alternative options are for the people you are looking to serve. Keep the humans in mind; if they buy your good what do they sacrifice, what do you think their experience of value is with that alternative? *costs are not to be confused with expenses, which are strictly about the money price paid for a good This does also apply to the sphere of public policy

Can you code up a script to scrape twitter posts and follow all the NPUBs posted?

Still continuing the series of reading Human Action deeply and sharing key lessons I wrote a brief article about different types of probability. My focus here is to make the article short and easy to read, with very clear takeaways. As an aside, this topic is DEEP and, in my opinion, forms one of the most important pillars in Ludwig von Mises' work on cognition. The whole body of his work on cognition gives a logically consistent foundation upon which Mises builds several of his key arguments. Most importantly, the method of economic calculation and the impossibility of economic calculation under socialism. As another aside, Mises' brother Richard was a mathematician and probability theorist. https://open.substack.com/pub/econguykonrad/p/prediction-in-an-uncertain-world?r=d1sr3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Just get the AIs to talk to each other

Hostinger accepts lightning as a payment option Wild man