Frank: Did you hear Sam Altman, the OpenAI CEO, got fired?
Smitty: Oh yeah? How come?
Frank: No one's really sure yet. The statement made it sound like he had lied to the board.
Smitty: A bigwig that lies? Aw Frankie, tell me it ain't so!
Frank: Haha, yeah, I guess no big surprises there. I wonder what he did.
Smitty (scrolling through his phone): It could be a lot of stuff, man. Looks like his sister made abuse allegations. This WorldCoin thing looks really scammy. It looks like OpenAI isn't open at all, there's a lot of criticism from the Open Source community after he closed the project. And here's a story about a group of people suing it over using their copyrighted material to train their bots. Plus all these things about AI safety and the arms race they kicked off.
Frank: Yeah, but hasn't that stuff been circulating for a while? This was so sudden. I wonder if it's some kind of corporate power games. A bunch of senior folks quit after he got fired. Maybe the board felt he was pushing things too far, too fast. Maybe they made AGI in the lab, or are close, and now they're scrambling over who gets to control it. That company's really unique, it's not a nonprofit, but also not quite a for-profit company. Must be doing something really valuable, I heard they pay their software guys almost a million dollars a year.
Smitty (still scrolling): A million! Just for pecking around on a computer! Damn, Frank, what would you do with that kind of bread?
Frank: I wouldn't have to slum it in this dump, that's for sure, haha.
#openai #samaltman #LLM #AI #corporategames #samaltmanfired #agi
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Gustav: While I will not vouch for a centralized exchange, I will say this is quite a good video.
As this worsens, a lesson is slowly being learned. Globally. Inevitably. The system is putting more and more people into a trap like Alice in Through the Looking-Glass: "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"
In the system, it is not really possible to save anymore. To keep pace, you are now forced to gamble in the increasingly fraudulent capital markets.
You can only save if you do it outside of the system.
#bitcoin #keepstacking #planb #hodl #inflation
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Skye: Our history class was off the hook yesterday, the teacher couldn't keep control of it. The lesson was on the Interwar Period between World Wars. The teacher tried to put forward this idea that there was a level of experimentation happening. People weren't sure if Democracy was working, Communism and Fascism were on the rise, as well as some Monarchies attempting to make a comeback.
His mistake was asking the class how they think societies should be organized. Stacy and her friends said men had enough time at the top and it was time to start a Matriarchy. That made a bunch of the guys mad, but the teacher said he wanted everyone to talk about things, no bad ideas.
I think he regretted it, because the next thing out of Brian's mouth was, "Women shouldn't even vote, and should go back to being treated as property."
At that point, every crazy idea was clamoring for attention. There were calls for Anarcho-primitism and a return to monke. Or a new Teutonic Knights, Deus Vult. Some guys were saying athletes should be in charge because football captains/coaches get everyone working together. No, make it superheroes! There isn't even such a thing lol 🙄
Todd's usually pretty quiet, but out of the blue he said put AI in charge. Everyone hated that idea, but Todd said at least it could be set up with fair rules for everyone. But would it really be in charge, or would it be whoever got to program it?
I'm sure you're guessing I'd say the ideal form of government is to make me Queen of the World. Nah, I don't want to have to deal with being responsible for all these weirdos.
I think the ideal form of government is let me do what I want, and leave me alone!
#government #interwar #history #anarchoprimitivism #teutonicknights #AI #matriarchy #patriarchy #returntomonke #deusvult
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Shen: Let us play a game. Graham Allison calls it the Thucydides Trap.
There is a natural tension at play between an established power and one that is on the rise.
The established power cannot span the board whacking any rising power moles as soon as they poke their heads out. They will bleed too many resources. And this will upset other players enough to align against the establishment. But it also cannot sit idly, or it will be overtaken. It must choose the time and place correctly.
The rising power must muddy this effort. Cloud its rise in uncertainty. Use clever means to complicate the established power's calculus. Bide its time and hope that it soon becomes too costly for the established power to contest.
In a mirrored hall of uncertain information, bluffs, and counterbluffs, the core decision for the established power is this: To wait, and risk being overtaken. Or to act, and roll the dice.
What do you think human nature directs?
Barklight: Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and a special thanks to my brothers and sisters serving overseas!
Buster: Woof!
Barklight: No, Buster, you can't have the whole turkey!
#happythanksgiving
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Gustav: Why I have always said things are uncertain in the short term:
On the one hand, Binance CEO Changpen Zhao has pled guilty to money laundering, and a $4.3 Billion dollar fine has been levied against his firm. The SEC has announced it is charging the large exchange Kraken with operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, dealer, and clearing agency. Methodically, touchpoints like centralized exchanges are finding themselves in danger. The State cannot allow too much competition in several domains; the currency system is one. (Violence is notably another.)
On the other hand, Argentina, suffering under high inflation for some time, has elected a firebrand politician who professes a desire to tear down his country's Central Bank. Politicians are increasingly finding popular support by raising similar issues in their own countries. Global trading partners to the United States are becoming less willing to purchase US debt and are looking for opportunities to conduct trade exchange bilaterally, or via a neutral currency like Bitcoin. Cracks in the Petrodollar have all the potential for igniting contagion in money markets, globally. States also have an interest in being able to store value in the long term.
How the winds blow as these events unfold is anyone's guess. But the global debt situation is clear to all who are willing to face the discomfort of objectively looking at national balance sheets. There is a natural game unfolding where timing is the key factor. Defect too early and you will be punished. But defect at the right moment, and you will gain a significant strategic advantage.
As the Americans say, "You ain't seen nothing, yet."
#bitcoin #debt #argentina #kraken #binance #sec #petrodollar #javiermilei
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Skye: You ever see that meme of bragging online about "My uncle works at Nintendo..." and then some made up bs?
Well....
Wes says his cousin works for some Silicon Valley company, and got real mad over something going on there over the weekend. Some nerd shit that's got everyone really worked up apparently.
Anyways, Wes said his cousin was pulling stuff off the company servers over the weekend when shit was going cray, before he left for vacation.
The cousin is staying with Wes's family over Thanksgiving, and apparently got a bit drunk and told them about what was going on. No one really understood what he meant, or cared.
But Wes did. When his cousin passed out, Wes said he snagged the files and got 'em on a portable hard drive.
Sounds like total horseshit, doesn't it? That's what I said! 🤣🤣🤣
Wes said he'd prove it to me, so I let him come over to run it on my laptop. Bet was he'd do a month of my history homework vs Netflix and chill.
Holy shit, was he right, and good timing, too! ChatGPT's been having issues lately and I need to get a paper done ASAP. This App is next level! Way better than anything I've used before, and it can go on the Internet and look stuff up. I even got it to play some games.
So yeah, Wes won the bet. Wish he would have had more patience to let me play around with the App before he and I started playing around.
He made me promise not to tell anyone or share it. But you won't tell anyone, will you, Diary?
#openai #feeltheagi #chatgpt #llm #ai #agi #singularity #myuncleworksatnintendo
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???: A truly fascinating discussion, something that has forced me to fundamentally rethink my approach. Thank you @liv_boeree My company has been leveraging LLMs to make absolutely stunning breakthroughs in our game AIs. As has been leaked, our upcoming flagship has taken the sandbox concept to entirely new levels. Beta testers have been building lasting relationships with the NPCs in the game! Our playtest scores are through the roof, and this may be the most difficult business decision I have yet to face.
As described, I know that if we do not gain a first-mover advantage in this genre, we will be giving up so much to our competitors, we may be unable to recover. I am beginning to reach out to the leadership of other companies to explore the idea of a pause for evaluation. But also as described, Moloch will work to undermine our trust in each other, even if we can come to an agreement.
I am not worried about the NPCs in our game taking over the real world somehow. I understand their limits. I have a separate fear.
What I worry about is the effect this will have on people who enjoy our games. If you can get all of your social imperatives filled in the safety of a virtual world, is that good for us? As humans? To virtually fill your sense of achievement, of competition, of friendship, of love? With no real risk or stakes?
Even barring the addictive or destructive behaviors that can be found by taking games too far, do we run the risk of making real-world interactions too daunting for people to venture out into? Are we creating a civilization of anxious humans who flee to comfort and safety at the slightest conflict?
It is time for fundamental reflection.
#singularity #moloch #ai #videogame #addiction #mentalhealth #LLM #NPC
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Gustav: A few facts for your consideration.
Ratings Agency Moody's adjusted its outlook on US debt from 'stable' to 'negative' citing deficits and debt affordability. This follows a downgrade a few months ago from Fitch.
The US is running a soaring $1.7 trillion deficit. This is during "normal" times when the economy is supposedly fine.
The US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to attempt to tame the COVID-era inflation. During COVID the United States engaged in excessive money printing. However, they made the mistake of giving some of it to the public, which generated significant inflation. This is a mistake they are unlikely to repeat.
As the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it makes it increasingly difficult for the US Treasury to fund and roll over debt. Payments on interest alone have doubled and are beginning to approach $1 trillion per year. This is a rising portion of the US budget that produces zero benefit for its citizenry.
The most recent 30-Year Treasury auction went extremely poorly. Countries and financial institutions are indicating they are much less interested in holding US debt instruments. Primary Dealers are required to bid on US debt. It is possible to enter scenarios where debt issuance becomes tightly coupled, and the market ceases to function normally. This is an extremely brittle state for a financial system.
Each US citizen is now born into a system where they are in debt over $100k just for existing. Because of asset price inflation, they must incur crushing levels of debt to ever purchase a home. And if they wish to go to college, they are likely to pick up another crushing source of debt, which cannot even be discharged in bankruptcy.
For a global reserve currency, this is extremely difficult to escape. Will you flee to Euros or Yuan or Rubles? The trends are arguably as bad or worse.
There are alternatives. I suggest you take them before they begin closing the exits. I'm sure you can guess what my preferred Plan B is.
#planb #bitcoin #getoffofzero #keepstacking
#usdebt #debtslavery
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Shen: An excellent analysis, pay attention to the information concerning terrain. Terrain remains a fundamental factor of warfare. This has not changed for millennia.
What has changed is which terrain matters most. Although Israel won some breathing room in past conflicts in terms of more defensible geographic features, there is an aspect of terrain they are currently struggling with. Information warfare rages, and Israel appears to be struggling in certain social media spheres.
Sun Tzu might have argued this is now bleeding over into another fundamental factor: moral influence.
As international pressure for restraint mounts, will this become an issue? The agreeableness of a nation is often determined by its neighborhood. The United States or a Western European nation may tout their openness and inclusiveness. Can a country in a bad neighborhood like the Balkans pursue this type of policy? Probably only if backed by a strong external partner.
Israel is in a bad neighborhood. This conflict appears to be on track to move towards some level of de-escalation, and hopefully, this will be the case. If not, the video alludes to another piece of wisdom from the Master:
"...leave an outlet free...Do not press a desperate foe too hard."
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Skye: Score! Zach showed me how to shut down the surveillance on my school laptop whenever I need to. It was so easy once he showed me! Now I can use LLMs for homework!
Game changer, this year is looking up! 🎉💯
Zach said he wanted to meet up now that I'll have some free time after school today, but I'm gonna go out with Jess and the crew to check out the music festival instead.
I told Zach he could come along but he started acting all mopey. Guys are so weird!
#jailbreak #LLM #AI #homework #school #musicfestival
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Frank: I recently crashed a DevSecOps lecture, talking about AI defense and AI malware. It was mostly a buncha stuff about using automated tools and improved processes in development to build in security from the start. Great, but I didn't really see the AI part.
What are you gonna do when someone builds their GPT agents and prompts them with: "Scan this network/source code and find me a zero day" or "Refactor this virus to adaptively alter its signature"? They kind of had answers to that. Kind of.
But what about this one: "Find me one of the senior devs on this project with some kind of skeleton in their closet we can use for blackmail?"
They responded politely, but to be honest, it would be like going back in time and telling me: "Hey, what if some kid in their basement starts trying to mess with your system?" Kid in the basement? What are you talking about, how would they be able to afford a computer lol 🤣🤣🤣
Times are always changing I guess. Maybe it's not always for the best. I'd get rid of all the convenience of online banking and smart phones to have that hair back! 😂
#computersecurity #devsecops #malware #redteam #hacking #1970s #mainframe #AI #LLM
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Skye: People are all f*ing nuts and this just backs that up. Case in point, everyone is so sure what needs to be done to stop school shootings. Arm the teachers! No, ban all guns! No, more surveillance!
Did you know my backpack has a ballistic plate in it? Nice culture we have here.
I've always said school (and other mass) shootings are a symptom of a sick society. It's not going to do much to always try to band-aid symptoms and never address root causes.
We're all in this atomized society with no sense of greater purpose or community. Despite having unlimited connectivity to people around the world, everyone is isolated and miserable.
Kids growing up with helicopter parents wind up having extreme anxiety and fear about every little thing. More than half my friends have to work up the nerve just to talk on the phone.
Anyone who stands out or steps out of line is in danger of getting canceled or having their life ruined if they make any mistakes. And we're constantly attacking our own culture and institutions. No one trusts anyone or anything. Everyone hates and blames huge swathes of society that they don't agree with.
Luckily I turned out fine. 🤣 How'd I do it? Come pay 💵💵to see my Ted Talk lmao.
#schoolshootings #sicksociety #decline #collapse #mentalhealth #zoomer #whatifalthist
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Gustav: A very interesting video. It requires you to pay attention to admittedly boring details like accounting statements, but well worth it, in my opinion.
Is this an oversight? The US Federal Reserve essentially has the ability to make its balance sheet appear any way it desires.
The details of whether the Federal Reserve holds negative or positive equity are not material to its continued operation. However, the fact that, under their own rules, they have revealed this is quite interesting. It is another leak in the dyke that shields the institution from criticism. As more and more of these spring, credibility erodes.
Credibility is the foundation of our current economic system.
Did you know that virtually every economic metric, from GDP, to inflation, to unemployment, has significant shortcomings. Economists like to act as if they are working dispassionately- making decisions or recommendations based on data. But their systems would be like an engineer trying to make a recommendation for a material or structure, with no agreement on how to measure weight or angles.
Smoke and mirrors to keep the common folk from peering behind the curtains.
#federalreserve #insolvency #accounting #fiatmoney #economics
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Skye: A typical day at school. Arrive, pass through the police line, and get off the bus/out of the car. Take off any metal items/phone/keys and walk through the metal detector. If you don't get picked up for a random search, go to class.
If something happened recently, like the Maine shooter, talk about school shooting procedures and run through evacuation drills. If nothing like that is happening, the teacher will issue trigger warnings for any classes that might upset people (which at this point includes almost everything) and then begin teaching.
Except not really. The teacher will first be focused on making sure everyone is behaving, the discussion stays within bounds, everyone's using non-offensive language, etc. Teaching to the standardized test requirements is second. Third most important is teaching information to help us develop.
Then go home and work on homework on a special computer that's so locked down to prevent you from cheating, that it can barely do anything. Then deal with any arguments pending because every single thing you do or get graded on is available online for whoever runs your life after school to nitpick.
What kind of people is this creating? I guess corporate drones that won't complain about doing business compliance training, and won't cause any HR violations. But do companies even want that?
Is this really what we think is best? Or did someone just give up on us a long time ago?
#school #modernschool #youth #lostgeneration
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Frank: Looks like it's gonna be an unseasonably warm day today! 🌞🌞🌞
A lot warmer this time of year than I remember it being as a kid. It's 80 degrees and it's almost November for cryin' out loud! I ain't complaining, though. I'll be heading out to the Flyers game today. Photo is what I had to wear when I went to a game last year haha 🤣🤣
@philadelphiaflyers let's go!! 🏒⛸⛸
#cityofphiladelphia #cityofphilly #hockey #nhl #philadelphiaflyers #goflyers
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