_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️

Welcomed a new Bitcoiner into the world on blockheight 913,569. Actual magic.

If you have been in Bitcoin for a cycle or more before today, you have experienced a once in a lifetime event. You built the conviction to hold an asset which the entire world told you was destined for nothing. Literally everyone said you were wrong, at scale. That character building dynamic, is no longer the case. Wall Street, government policy, and even the media is at minimum less negative, but mostly now positive. Building conviction in Bitcoin now is easy, folks just pass off responsibility to their money manager. If you stood the hardcore test of building, forming, challenging, and reshaping your conviction over years, amidst the most hostile social environment against Bitcoin we will probably ever see, well done. Yes the asset is awesome. But the lessons you learned, and the trust you now have in your own decisions and ability to reason, cannot be replicated. You lived a once in a lifetime experience. Put it to work in your life, and make it better.

Once in every Bitcoin cycle, folks emerge with a thousand reason why the declining block subsidy will lead to the eventual death of the 🌽 In my latest piece for _checkonchain subscribers, I lay out my thoughts around the long-term viability of Bitcoins PoW security system. https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/securing-the-bag-my-take-on-bitcoins

For all the chess players in the room, what is your favourite piece, and why is it the Knight?

Gold is absolutely ripping. Amazing to watch. every $300 jump in the gold price is 1x entire Bitcoin market cap. If gold can move up by several trillions of dollars in a year...

hello Nostr

Paper #Bitcoin Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up. In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them. My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers. https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/paper-bitcoin-01

Devil's Advocate. My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers. In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias. https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/devils-advocate

With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers. I cover: - What options are (calls/Puts) - Options Buyers vs Sellers - The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta) - Example strategies https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/options-101-derivatives-masterclass

Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin. The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways. From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour. https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/beating-the-house-odds

#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums. The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers. Today I share two perspectives: - Hard realities by Check the Analyst - What Check the HODLer is doing with that information. Enjoy folks! https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/demand-doldrums

The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson. Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data. I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too. https://youtu.be/J8rEAoHDYOI

Inflationary Illusions. My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones. What if we never made a real ATH at all? https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions

Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘 Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.

The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live. I cover three topics in a 1hr video: 1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin 2) How I think about $BTC Miners 3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats. https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets

Playing with Fire. My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers. https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/bitcoin-playing-with-fire-onchain-analysis-market-update?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now. Is anyone building something like this?

The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics. It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium. The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers. https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio

The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare. This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout. I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did. https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/rough-consensus-podcast-with-joe?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18