The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare. This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout. I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did.

Rough Consensus Podcast with Joe Carlasare (Ep #3)

How stable is the denominator, and what is a store of value? Today, I welcome Joe Carlasare on the podcast to discuss how we think about these ques...

In case folks didn't know, there is a full suite of Bitcoin charts available over at charts.checkonchain.com All free, onchain, ETFs, derivatives and comparisons with TradFi.

Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...). Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic. inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances. Don't whale watch kids.

Since everyone is jumping over to Nostr, I wanted to share my latest analysis video from behind the paywalled with you all. Enjoy!

My latest piece is out for checkonchain subscribers. this one looks at the tremendous sellside that the Bitcoin market has absorbed over the last 6 months. I also compare the conditions to 2019, which is the most similar period by far.

It's 2019...Again

The similarities between the 2019 BTC peak, and today are striking, although the differences are even more fascinating.

#Bitcoin onchain analysis masterclass is live covering the onchain originals price models. in particular, the Cointime Price, True Market Mean, and Vaulted Price stand out as key levels where investor sentiment tends to shift.

Masterclass: Onchain Originals Price Models

Watch now | One of the most natural applications of onchain data is to seek valuation models, which help us identify, and take advantage of market ...

The #Bitcoin ETFs saw around four weeks of outflows in April, worth around -$1.1B on net. It took only 13-days for that to more than reverse, with over $1.6B worth of inflows, and eight +$100M inflow days in a row. Feels like a second demand wave may be upon us. Chart: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/tradfi/tradfi_btc_etf_aum_1/tradfi_btc_etf_aum_1_light.html

Introducing Cointime Economics, a new framework for analysing the Bitcoin economy. Video overview: Primer blog post is available here:

Glassnode Insights - On-Chain Market Intelligence

Ark Invest + Glassnode: Introducing Cointime Economics

We introduce Cointime Economics, a new framework for analysis of the Bitcoin economy. It relates the concepts of time and supply to derive dynamic ...

The full PDF report is available here: https://20368641.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/20368641/Cointime%20Economics%20%5BDIGITAL%20SINGLE%5D.pdf

In a few hours, we will be releasing a brand new Bitcoin analysis framework, which we call Cointime Economics. Within, we relate the concept of 'time' to the dimension of 'supply', and establish a suite of greatly improved economic models for Bitcoin. This framework explains a great many concepts such as how many coins are likely lost, what is the real cost basis of the market, and how much does the halving actually matter. Cointime Economics is a product of over 18months work alongside David Puell, and builds on the pioneering work of the late Tamas Blummer. I couldn't be more excited for it to go live. It is by far the most abstract concept I have ever worked through, and I truly hope it inspires analysts and readers with new ideas about Bitcoin. This meme is the TL:DR, and was literally the first thing I put to paper as it migrated from napkin to paper. I hope you enjoy, and cannot wait to hear/ feedback. I will post links to the report as soon as we release.

Fresh onchain fundamentals research is live, today we're focusing on the MVRV ratio for Bitcoin. This is one of the oldest and most popular metrics, but is massively underutilised relative to its potential. Strong recommend to learn how to read the MVRV, and assign probabilities to particular values.

Glassnode Insights - On-Chain Market Intelligence

Mastering the MVRV Ratio

The MVRV Ratio is one of the most popular and widely used on-chain metrics, however, much of the power of MVRV is rarely put to use. In this paper,...