Michael Wilkins's avatar
Michael Wilkins
thebitcointransition@primal.net
npub1qhfq...ruvy
Founder, Involve Digital. Founder, The Bitcoin Transition. Focused on sound money, incentives, and systems. Bitcoin as a monetary protocol, not a speculative asset. Exploring how hard money shapes technology, productivity, and long-term human progress.
I’m tired of scrolling LinkedIn and seeing the same posts on repeat: “Bitcoin is down $66k.” “Bitcoin is down 50%.” “Bitcoin is failing.” Every speculator has an opinion. Everyone pretends they know what’s happening. Almost none of it matters. Because nothing fundamental about Bitcoin has changed. Bitcoin is not a stock. It is not a tech company. It is not a yield product. It is not a macro trade. Bitcoin is a monetary protocol. Here’s what hasn’t changed: The supply is still fixed at 21 million Blocks are still produced roughly every 10 minutes Nodes still independently verify every rule Miners still secure the network via proof-of-work Difficulty still adjusts automatically No central party can change the rules That’s Bitcoin. The only thing that’s moved is the fiat exchange rate people use to talk about it. When people say “Bitcoin is down,” what they actually mean is: One unit of Bitcoin currently exchanges for fewer dollars. That tells you something about dollars, not about Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn’t promise price stability in fiat terms. It promises monetary integrity. It removes discretionary money creation. It removes counterparty risk. It removes the need to speculate just to preserve purchasing power. That’s why so many people misunderstand it. Most people don’t want money. They want more fiat. So they trade Bitcoin instead of using it. They time tops and bottoms. They chase narratives. They panic when the unit of account they don’t trust moves against them. But when you stop pricing your life in fiat and start pricing it in Bitcoin, the picture flips: Goods get cheaper over time. Savings stop evaporating. Long-term planning becomes possible again. That’s the point. Bitcoin doesn’t need defending during drawdowns. It needs understanding. Price noise will come and go. The protocol remains consistent. Tick tock. Next Block That’s #Bitcoin
In February 2016 an average sirloin from the butcher cost. 2230596 sats Today it costs 21065 This is what living on a Bitcoin Standard is like. Prices drop long term. Life gets better. Retirement comes earlier. That’s #Bitcoin
#Bitcoin is not something you price. #Bitcoin is something you price things in.
Most debates about #Bitcoin still anchor on the wrong unit of account. Fiat. Bitcoin does not become valuable because its fiat price rises. Its fiat price rises because fiat currencies lose purchasing power over time, while Bitcoin’s supply remains fixed. Today, approximately 19.99 million bitcoin exist. That supply will increase slowly and predictably until it asymptotically approaches 21 million by 2140. No policy decision, emergency, or demand shock can change this issuance schedule. At the same time, global production of goods and services continues to expand. Technology, automation, energy efficiency, and capital accumulation increase output faster than new bitcoin are created. This is not speculative — it is observable economic reality. When productive output grows faster than the monetary base, prices fall in real terms. That is deflation driven by productivity, not collapse. Under a hard money standard, money gains purchasing power because more value is produced per unit of money — not because the money itself changes. Bitcoin was designed for this environment. If Bitcoin were the unit of account, the total value of global production would be expressed across a fixed monetary denominator, rather than an expanding one. Value would not disappear through dilution; it would be redistributed through prices. This does not require Bitcoin’s fiat price to rise for the protocol to function. Even at lower fiat prices: Nodes continue to verify transactions. Proof of work continues. Difficulty adjusts. The rules remain unchanged. Bitcoin does not fail when its fiat price falls. The protocol has no awareness of dollars. What fails is the assumption that Bitcoin’s success is measured by fiat valuation. The debate between #Bitcoin and #Gold — or between different Bitcoin advocates — often misses this point entirely. When arguments hinge on dollar thresholds or “price invalidation levels,” they remain trapped in a fiat unit-of-account framework. A transition to a Bitcoin standard requires a mental shift: From measuring Bitcoin in dollars To measuring goods, services, and time in bitcoin Under such a system: Saving does not require yield Retirement does not depend on perpetual growth or government promises Productivity is rewarded directly through purchasing power This is not speculation. It is the consequence of combining a fixed-supply monetary protocol with rising global productivity. Bitcoin is not an investment vehicle designed to produce more fiat. It is a monetary protocol designed to preserve value across time. Most people are yet to realise this.
I have noticed a growing number of Monero supporters lately. After several debates, a pattern becomes clear. Most arguments rest on Keynesian assumptions. This matters. Keynesian economics treats money as a tool to manage outcomes. Issuance is flexible. Inflation is acceptable. Stability is prioritised over constraint. Scarcity is viewed as a problem. Not a requirement. This framework dominates modern finance. It is also why the world looks the way it does today. Persistent inflation. Rising asset prices. Falling purchasing power. Increasing dependence on subsidies and intervention. These outcomes are not accidents. They are features of the model. Monero mirrors this thinking at the protocol level. Supply is not capped. Issuance never reaches zero. Security is subsidised through ongoing dilution. Fees are assumed to be insufficient on their own. This is Keynesian logic expressed in code. The argument is familiar. Some inflation is necessary. The system must be supported. Hard limits are unrealistic. Bitcoin rejects these assumptions. Supply is fixed. Issuance trends to zero. Security must be paid explicitly by users. Scarcity is enforced, not managed. This is a hard money framework. Monero is not fraudulent. It is ideological. It encodes the belief that inflation is functional and necessary. That belief is Keynesian. So the distinction is simple. Bitcoin is sound money. Monero is Keynesian digital cash.
#Bitcoin is down ~6% today. Emotions are up. This is normal in a fiat-priced world. Short-term price moves are noise created by leveraged markets, traders, and liquidity flows. They do not change what Bitcoin is. If you price your life in Bitcoin terms, something important becomes clear: Over the last10 years, life has become cheaper, not more expensive when living on a Bitcoin standard. While people living entirely in fiat struggle with rising rents, food, energy, and debt, those saving in Bitcoin have seen their purchasing power increase over time. I’ve have personally lived on a Bitcoin standard for over a decade. My cost of living has gone down. My savings have strengthened. I carry no fiat clown world debt. Not because I speculate. But because I focus on producing value in the economy, I get paid for that productivity, and store it in Bitcoin. This is Austrian economics in practice: • Create real value • Avoid debt • Save in hard money • Let time work for you The fiat price of Bitcoin means nothing long term. What matters is: • How many sats you hold • Whether you self-custody • Whether you can earn, save, and eventually spend sats Bitcoin doesn’t need to “go up.” Fiat needs to keep falling — and it always does long term. When measured against an infinite, debasing currency, Bitcoin’s upside is asymmetrical by design. Most people haven’t figured this out yet. Stay calm. Ignore the charts. Be productive. Stack sats.
You don’t buy Bitcoin. You sell fiat to acquire sats. The price is just an exchange rate between two units. One expands by design. The other does not. Fiat loses purchasing power over time. Bitcoin preserves it. When viewed correctly, timing matters less than direction. You are exchanging a melting asset for a scarce one. People fixate on entry price because they still think in fiat terms. But the goal is not to “get rich.” It is to stop getting poorer. Each sat acquired is stored time and energy. Verified. Portable. Final. Over the long term, the exchange rate will fluctuate. The monetary properties will not. Acquire sats. Hold your keys. Measure wealth in what you keep, not what you trade. #Bitcoin
Michael Wilkins's avatar
Michael Wilkins 0 months ago
Arrived back in London today. At Heathrow, I overheard someone say their Heathrow Express ticket was £30. £30 to take a train from the airport into the city. This is not a transport story. It is a currency story. Purchasing power is what money can buy. When everyday services absorb larger portions of income, purchasing power has declined. Not long ago, £30 represented meaningful optionality. Today, it is consumed by a short, unavoidable trip. The number stayed the same. The value did not. This is how currency decline presents itself. Quietly. Through routine transactions. Most people notice prices. Few notice the unit of account failing. #GBP #Inflation #PurchasingPower #SoundMoney #Bitcoin
Michael Wilkins's avatar
Michael Wilkins 0 months ago
The price barely moved. It proves where price discovery now lives. Bitcoin’s fiat price is set mostly off-chain: derivatives, ETFs, netting, leverage, and internal settlement. Large purchases can be absorbed without touching the base layer. That is not Bitcoin failing. That is financialisation reappearing on top of it. There is no public proof that institutional holdings are unbacked. There is also no cryptographic proof that they are self-custodied. Both statements matter. The risk is not institutions owning bitcoin. The risk is bitcoin becoming something people hold claims on instead of verify. Paperisation does not break Bitcoin. It breaks people’s relationship with it. The protocol remains unchanged. 21 million still exists. Nodes still enforce the rules. The only defence is participation: – self custody – node verification – earning and spending sats Price does not secure Bitcoin. Users do. #Bitcoin image
Most so-called “crypto educators” are not teaching you how to make money. They don’t even understand the definition of money. They are teaching speculation. Usually in the shitcoin casino. Trading systems, indicators, cycles, narratives. All framed around one goal: increasing a fiat balance. That is not making money. That is chasing units of account that lose purchasing power. Speculation is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there is a loser. No new value is created. No productivity is improved. Only risk is redistributed. Bitcoin was not designed for this. Bitcoin is a monetary protocol, not a trading instrument. It does not generate yield. It does not compound. It does not promise returns. Its function is simple: – fixed supply – predictable issuance – final settlement – ownership without permission When Bitcoin is treated as a vehicle for fiat gains, it becomes misunderstood. When it is treated as money, its purpose becomes clear. Educating people to trade Bitcoin keeps them trapped in the same system Bitcoin was designed to exit. Educating people to earn, save, self-custody, and spend Bitcoin changes behaviour. That distinction matters. If your framework requires charts, leverage, or timing to “win,” you are not teaching money. You are teaching speculation. Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It is a tool for preserving the value of human time and energy over long horizons. Anything else is noise. #Bitcoin #Trading #Speculation
Recent headlines about BlackRock allocating billions to Bitcoin often miss a critical detail. It is not BlackRock buying Bitcoin. It is BlackRock’s customers buying and selling exposure through an ETF. BlackRock acts as the issuer, custodian coordinator, and fee collector. They clip the ticket regardless of direction. This matters because ETFs are not Bitcoin ownership. They are financial products that track Bitcoin’s price while reintroducing intermediaries, custody, legal reliance, and counterparty risk. As capital flows through ETFs: • Users gain price exposure, not settlement finality • Bitcoin becomes abstracted into shares and claims • Ownership shifts from keys to paperwork This is how paperisation begins. Not through malice, but through structure. Self-custody exists to prevent this outcome. When you self-custody Bitcoin: • You hold the private keys • You do not rely on audits, custodians, or legal promises • Your Bitcoin cannot be rehypothecated or frozen ETFs increase liquidity and visibility. That is not inherently bad. But they do not strengthen Bitcoin as money. Bitcoin’s purpose is not to sit inside financial wrappers. It is to enable sovereign ownership and final settlement without permission. Institutions will always choose custody and abstraction. Individuals still have a choice. As institutional exposure grows, self-custody becomes more important, not less. Bitcoin remains trustless. Whether you use it that way is up to you. https://www.perplexity.ai/page/blackrock-pours-1-24b-into-cry-0ds_Y1WLTeuSALw3xB2R5A #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #BitcoinPaperisation
Freezing Prices Is Not Fixing Costs Freezing rail fares does not tackle the cost of living. It freezes a symptom while the cause continues. The cost of living rises when the unit of account loses purchasing power. Transport, food, housing and energy do not become expensive in isolation. They rise together because money is diluted. A price freeze shifts costs, it does not remove them. If fares are held below market clearing levels, the difference is paid elsewhere: – higher taxes – higher debt – lower service quality – deferred maintenance Nothing is made cheaper. The bill is simply hidden. Real cost reduction comes from productivity and sound capital allocation. That requires stable money. Without it, governments are forced into constant intervention to mask decline. Temporary controls create the appearance of relief. They do not restore purchasing power. The cost of living crisis is not a rail problem. It is a monetary problem. Until the currency stops losing value, freezes and subsidies will continue — and they will continue to fail. image
After 10+ years and 30,000+ hours of studying the history of money, monetary failures, hard money systems, Austrian economics, and Bitcoin, a few conclusions become unavoidable. Money is not created by decree. It emerges as a coordination tool. Societies converge on the hardest available money because it best preserves time, labour, and energy. Throughout history, money has followed a pattern: • Collectible goods become media of exchange. • The most durable, scarce, and verifiable forms outcompete the rest. • States later monopolise issuance. • Debasement follows. • Trust erodes. • The system resets. This cycle has repeated for thousands of years. Gold was not chosen because it was shiny. It was chosen because it was hard to produce, difficult to counterfeit, and costly to debase. Those properties constrained rulers and protected savers. The abandonment of hard money did not happen because it “failed.” It happened because it limited political spending. Fiat currency is not money in the historical sense. It is a credit instrument backed by future taxation and enforced by law. Its supply must expand to service the debt it creates. This is not a flaw. It is the design. Credit creation changes behaviour. New money enters the economy through specific channels: • Governments • Banks • Asset markets Those closest to issuance benefit first. Those furthest away pay through rising prices and declining purchasing power. Productivity gains no longer flow primarily to savers or workers. They are absorbed by asset inflation. This is why wages lag prices. This is why savings no longer work. This is why speculation outcompetes production. Austrian economics does not oppose growth. It explains growth. Real growth comes from: • Capital accumulation • Productivity improvements • Time preference discipline Hard money forces growth to appear as falling prices and rising purchasing power, not monetary expansion. Under sound money, progress benefits everyone. Under fiat money, progress is unevenly distributed. Bitcoin is not an innovation in finance. It is an innovation in monetary integrity. Bitcoin did not invent scarcity. It enforced it digitally, without trust. Bitcoin is: • Fixed in supply • Permissionless • Verifiable by anyone • Independent of political systems It does not promise yield. It does not promise returns. It does not guarantee adoption. It simply removes monetary discretion. Bitcoin does not succeed because its fiat price rises. Its fiat price rises because fiat units lose purchasing power and more fiat flows into a fixed system. Price is not value. Value is preserved purchasing power over time. Bitcoin exposes this distinction. Most confusion comes from mixing frameworks: • Treating Bitcoin as an investment instead of money • Measuring success in fiat terms • Expecting monetary neutrality from a debt-based system Paper Bitcoin, custodial claims, ETFs, and derivatives reintroduce the very trust Bitcoin was designed to remove. They may increase liquidity and price discovery, but they weaken monetary sovereignty. Self-custody matters. Running a node matters. Using Bitcoin matters. Money that is not used eventually becomes controlled. The long arc is clear: • Fiat systems require perpetual expansion. • Expansion erodes trust. • Trust loss drives capital toward harder money. This is not ideological. It is structural. Bitcoin is not a revolution. It is a reversion. A return to money that cannot be altered, censored, or debased. Whether it succeeds depends not on price, institutions, or narratives, but on whether people choose to use it as money. Hard constraints produce honest systems. Honest systems produce long-term progress. That is the conclusion. #Bitcoin #AustrianEconomics #HistoryOfMoney #Money
Bitcoin’s design assumes personal responsibility. Self-custody is not a preference. It is a requirement of the system. When Bitcoin is held through an intermediary, ownership becomes conditional. Access depends on policy, solvency, and permission. The holder no longer controls settlement. They hold a claim, not the asset itself. This recreates the structure Bitcoin was designed to remove. Self-custody restores finality. If you control the keys, you control the bitcoin. No counterparty is required to approve, reverse, or honour the transaction. Running a node completes this. A node does not create Bitcoin. It verifies it. By running a node, you independently enforce the rules you rely on. You decide what is valid. You do not outsource consensus to miners, exchanges, ETFs, or developers. Without nodes, Bitcoin becomes a set of promises rather than a protocol. Verification is the separation of Bitcoin from trust. Paper Bitcoin emerges when verification is abandoned. ETFs, custodial accounts, treasury vehicles, and synthetic exposure all increase price exposure while reducing monetary integrity. They concentrate coins, fragment ownership, and introduce leverage. More claims are created than bitcoin available for settlement. This is how gold was neutralised. It is how fiat systems are maintained. Paper markets suppress volatility until they fail. When confidence breaks, claims exceed reserves and settlement becomes impossible. The underlying asset survives. The claims do not. Bitcoin resists this only if users do. Self-custody prevents rehypothecation. Nodes prevent rule changes by decree. Usage prevents capture. Bitcoin does not need institutional endorsement to function. It needs individuals who verify and settle honestly. Hard money only works if it is used as hard money. Everything else is convenience layered on top of risk. The protocol is simple. The responsibility is not optional. #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #NodeRunner
Britain’s national debt is approaching £3 trillion and is projected to rise well beyond that in the coming years. Debt interest alone is expected to rival or exceed core public services such as defence and education. This is not an accident. It is the predictable outcome of a debt-based monetary system. In fiat systems, deficits are not treated as constraints. They are treated as tools. When spending exceeds revenue, governments borrow. When borrowing grows too large, currencies are expanded to service the debt. The cost is shifted from the balance sheet to the currency. Austrian economics explains this clearly. Debt does not create growth. It reallocates future purchasing power to the present. When borrowing becomes structural rather than temporary, it distorts incentives. Capital flows toward politically favoured spending rather than productive investment. Real wages stagnate. Asset prices rise. Living costs increase faster than incomes. Rising debt interest is the signal that the system is tightening. More resources are required just to maintain past promises. Less capital is available for innovation, productivity, and real growth. The result is higher taxes, higher inflation, or both. This is why unemployment rises even as governments spend more. This is why living standards fall despite record budgets. Hard money systems behave differently. When money cannot be expanded at will, debt must be justified by real returns. Bad investments fail quickly. Capital is allocated more carefully. Growth comes from productivity, not leverage. Bitcoin exists outside this framework. It has no issuer. It cannot be borrowed into existence. Its supply does not expand to service political promises. #Bitcoin does not fix government debt. It exposes it. As sovereign debt grows, the demand for money that cannot be debased increases. That demand is not ideological. It is economic. This is the function of hard money. Not to create growth, but to measure it honestly. When the measuring stick stops shrinking, the problem becomes visible. https://www.perplexity.ai/page/britain-s-national-debt-set-to-9M2jPgf9QKakBxT16d3KYQ
Price is not value. Price is an expression in a unit of account. Value is purchasing power over time. When the unit of account weakens, prices rise even if nothing real has changed. This is not growth. It is dilution. Fiat currencies expand by design. As supply increases, each unit represents less claim on real goods and services. Prices adjust upward to reflect this loss. Wages lag prices because wages are reactive, not instant. They are renegotiated periodically. Prices reprice continuously. The gap is the hidden tax paid by labour. This is why people feel poorer even when GDP rises and salaries increase. The measuring stick is shrinking faster than income adjusts. Hard money exposes this reality. When the monetary unit does not expand, value shows up as: • Falling prices • Higher quality • Increased purchasing power Productivity is no longer masked by monetary debasement. Progress becomes visible instead of distorted. Bitcoin does not make things more expensive. It makes the currency honest. Price fluctuates. Value is preserved. Confusing the two leads to false conclusions. #Bitcoin #HardMoney #Finance #Value #FiatCurrencies
A new year is a natural reset. People set goals. They reassess what matters. They decide where to direct their time, energy, and effort. This makes it a good moment to think about money. Money is not wealth. It is a tool for measuring and storing the value you create. When the measuring stick is unstable, effort is distorted. Productivity is punished. Long-term thinking becomes difficult. For decades, most people have been forced to trade their time for a currency that loses purchasing power by design. The result is predictable: higher risk, more speculation, less saving, and constant pressure to chase returns just to stand still. Hard money changes the incentive structure. When money holds its value: • Saving becomes rational. • Long-term planning becomes possible. • Productivity is rewarded instead of diluted. Bitcoin represents this shift. Not as a get-rich-quick scheme. Not as a trade. Not as a yield product. But as a fixed-supply monetary system with no issuer, no discretion, and no need for trust. In a Bitcoin standard, progress shows up differently. Not primarily through rising prices, but through: • Falling costs • Better tools • Higher quality • More efficient coordination The goal isn’t to “number go up.” The goal is to produce more value with less waste, and store that value honestly. As this year begins, the question isn’t: “How do I make more money?” It’s: “What am I building?” “What value am I creating?” “And what money do I store that value in?” Hard money rewards patience. It rewards discipline. It rewards real work. That is a good foundation for any year ahead. #Bitcoin #NewYear #Productivity #ValueCreation