Here's my latest episode with Jamie Coutts from Real Vision. YouTube: We talk about: -The liquidity situation Bitcoin currently finds itself in -The true impact of the dollar on risk assets -Why the term QE should be put to rest -What value to get from market indicators like the MOVE index -Why the sentiment among altcoin investors has been so ba

I just published a new read on Nostr! Bitcoin IS the asset class: There is a full-blown Bitcoin-linked stock makret developing Check it out: " target="_blank">https://highlighter.com/a/ [#Bitcoin](/t/Bitcoin) [#BTC](/t/BTC) [#Stockmarket](/t/Stockmarket) [#AssetClass](/t/AssetClass) [#MSTR](/t/MSTR) [#Strategy](/t/Strategy) [#Convertibles](/t/Convertibles) [#ConvertibleBonds](/t/ConvertibleBonds) View article → https://highlighter.com/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqpwdalxssze42j7uhgvf99aw27p0fjaergrqz844py0ml32sesnyqythwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2ap0qqs5y6t5vdhkjm3df9fj6argv5kkzumnv46z6cmvv9ehxtt3vcur27tfnmmq5n

Also, here's my latest discussion with Ralf Kubli. Enjoyed this recent talk and given he has his expertise in tokenization, I couldn’t resist picking his brain on the highly contentious. YouTube:

#asknostr #nostrhelp @paul keating @ODELL Hey guys I‘d like to post long-form reads on nostr using highlighter. I run into the following problems: I cannot create my highlighter because publishing the event always fail. Can anyone help me🔥? Thanks

Why is $97k the "magical number" in Bitcoinland for now. It's got to do with Strategy's goal to qualify for the S&P 500. To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must meet several criteria, including: -Market Capitalization: At least ~$14.5 billion. -Profitability: Positive GAAP earnings over the last four quarters (with the most recent quarter also being positive). -Public Float: At least 10% of shares must be publicly available. -Liquidity & Sector Classification: Sufficient trading volume and being in an eligible sector. Srategy is meeting all of them, except for the profitability metric. Why the FASB Rule Change Matters: Before Q1 2025, companies had to report Bitcoin under old accounting rules that only allowed for impairment losses (but not unrealized gains). The new FASB rules (effective in Q1 2025) allow fair value accounting, meaning unrealized BTC gains count towards GAAP earnings. This helps profitability, a key S&P 500 requirement. So know. In light of some back-of-the-envelope calculation, we can state: An end of quarter close (March 31, 2025) with BTC at ≈ $96.5K keeps pre-Q1 holdings profitable but barely offsets Q1 losses. An end of quarter close with BTC at ≈ $97K ensures positive Q1 net income under FASB, increasing S&P 500 eligibility. An end of quarter close with BTC > $100K creates a much stronger profitability case, reducing uncertainty. So yes, $97K BTC is the real "safe" threshold right now. Should we move anywhere near this price level towards the end of March, things could become very interesting. Once the profitability threshold is met and eligibility for SPY inclusion increases, we should expect a lot of front-running (in MSTR) from market participants. This situation is obviously highly reflexive.. Well, I guess, we are here and ready for it 😁🔥

The Trump administration is actively reshaping the global monetary system—right now. YouTube: Most discussions on this topic focus solely on the U.S. perspective. But what about the rest of the world? That’s why I brought on Jim Bianco. Though he’s American, he’s uniquely positioned to challenge the U.S.-centric narrative and dive into the bigger picture: • How is this financial rewiring impacting Europe? • Is the U.S. tying itself in knots with contradictory policies? • Could America’s moves end up making the whole world poorer? We tackle these questions and more—don’t miss

Trump’s chaotic tariffs get all the headlines, but the real story is deeper: major monetary and geoeconomic shifts are underway. I broke it all down with @Josh Hendrickson —what’s happening, why it matters, and what it means for the future. This is a conversation I learnt a ton. And so will you! Check it out👇🏻🔥

Explaining the QT dynamics👇🏻 So QT is slowed down by 80%, from $25b to $5b. This means that the Fed is slowing down the pace at which it reduces its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. Instead of letting a large amount of bonds roll off its balance sheet each month (which removes money from the financial system), it will now reduce them by only $5 billion per month. The $20 billion that the Fed was reducing each month but now isn’t effectively stays in the financial system. Said differently: the Fed is reinvesting the remaining $20 billion into new Treasuries, keeping that money circulating in the economy rather than tightening financial conditions. Why has the Fed decided to taper QT significantly just now? Well, it has to do with the debt ceiling dynamics. Because the debt ceiling in the United States has not been resolved (might only be resolved in late summer), the US government will most likely have to drain their bank account at the Fed (called TGA). With TGA falling, liquidity will be pushed into to the financial sector. What the Fed is concerned about is the time, when the debt ceiling is resolved and the TGA will need to be refilled. This will suck liquidity out of the commercial banking syshem. With QT significantly tampered and the Fed reinvesting the proceeds into government bonds, banks will supported and don‘t have to give up to many reserves for thr refill, helping to avoid any stress in the reserve system. One of the main drivers is that the Fed wants to avoid another 2019-style repo crisis, rather than having to be reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs all of a sudden. Here‘s what happened in 2019 as a recap 👇🏻 September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling about $100B out of markets as large corporations paid their dues to the IRS and funds flooded into the TGA. Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities. During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance. Also, reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread. This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations. Now, this is what the Fef is avoiding this time around. Last point on this for now: As explained already, slowing the runoff of Treasuries reduces the supply in the market, pushing their prices higher (assuming demand remains steady) and lowering yields. Lower yields mean cheaper borrowing, increasing liquidity as investors seek higher returns in assets like stocks and crypto. Meanwhile, the Fed maintaining its MBS runoff isn’t a major concern for risk assets since MBS (mortgage backef securities) are more directly tied to the housing market, affecting home sales, construction, and refinancing. While MBS runoff does have indirect effects—reducing economic activity in housing-related sectors like home improvement retailers—the impact is more gradual. And we haven‘t seen that many runoffs because people are in low mortgage rates for long-term and are not refinancing into higher rates. For risk assets, a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.3% to 4% has a much bigger influence than a 0.2% rise in mortgage rates due to MBS pressure.

Latest LNMS interview👇🏻 YouTube: Truflation is the talk of the town! More and more people are using to gauge where markets are going. I wanted to know why it is special and set down with Stefan Rust, CEO and founder of Truflation. -How is Truflation different from traditional inflation metrics? -What makes it more accurate? -Why is it a leading signal, giving investor a potential edge? Check out the conversation🔥💪🏻

This was a true masterclass for me from Aahan, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research YouTube: youtu.be/6rg5sO914VU In very clear terms and steps, he explained to me how any serious investor needs to think and approach markets. We talked about the three basic concepts growth, inflation and liquidity and analyzed what components to look for in each. Enjoy and please retweet if you like the content🏋️‍♀️

For the latest LNMS epsiode, I had a fascinating discussion with economist Thomas Hougan, a senior fellow at the @Bitcoin Policy Institute / @btcpolicyorg (RSS Feed) YouTube: We talked about: -Bitcoin as base money – what it means and why it matters -How base money in today’s monetary & financial system differs from Bitcoin -What the economy and credit would look like under a Bitcoin Standard

Some thoughts on the SBR announcement -> The U.S. officially labels Bitcoin a strategic asset. This is quite big, confirming Bitcoin’s significant geoeconomic and geopolitical role -> Expect to see more 13F filings by sovereign wealth funds -> Sovereign and supranational bodies (like IMF) will have a harder time justifying anti-bitcoin policies -> The probability that individual states in the U.S. will put bitcoin on their balance sheets just increased -> Should individual states own Bitcoin, the probability that the US congress agrees to something like the Lummis Bitcoin bill (buying up to 1 million BTC over 5 years) increases as well However: Labelling Bitcoin as strategic does have its downsides though -> The establishment of a SBR is a “careful what you wish for”-moment -> High likelihood the US will approach Bitcoin the same way they approach oil, gold, or critical infrastructure, meaning they will seek control, influence, and risk management over its supply and stability -> In times of severe crises, we could see government commandeer or nationalize bitcoin miners. Or assume legal authority to aggressively seize private BTC holdings out of national interest -> With Bitcoin being deemed strategic, centralizing forces around supply, custody, mining and development will intensify (Bessent already called for bringing crypto on shore) -> If you understand the thinking of nation states around financial rails, labeling Bitcoin as strategic does not solely mean the government will buy bitcoin but lead to “oh we should control this network” ->There’s the risk that the US gov will not want to leave further Bitcoin protocol development to chance. Imagine a scenario where an army of NIST engineers, backed by virtually unlimited funding, suddenly steps in to influence or direct its evolution. Remember, both the Secretary of Treasury (Bessent) and Commerce (Lutnick) have held Bitcoin in the past and understand its significance. What is widely missed but hidden in the EO document called “Presidential Actions” (not the Factsheet broadly shared), is: “The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce SHALL develop strategies for acquiring additional Government BTC…” So, the actual text of the EO directs them to develop strategies to buy Bitcoin. This is very bullish price if you ask me. There are many budget neutral strategies for acquiring Bitcoin. -> Use USD surplus in Exchange Stabiliation Fund (ESF), netting to $39B -> Revalue gold holdings, netting to about $800B -> Demand IMF to include BTC in SDR or sell SDR for BTC -> Issuing Bitcoin Bonds (Bit Bonds) -> Best option IMO, will examine in a future LNMS episode -> Sell holdings from strategic cheese reserve held in Missouri caves, netting to about $3B (btw, hope this is Swiss cheese the US gov is holding. Every other cheese is shitcoin cheese) -> Use tariffs proceeds to buy Bitcoin -> Use DOGE savings?

This is an episode you don't want to miss. YouTube: I got to talk to @_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ from Checkonchain about Bitcoin's latest price performance, the risk of entering a bear market, the key price levels to watch and the true meaning of the 69,420 price target🤪 As always, a lot of real signal from the man himself

Here‘s my latest discussion for LNMS YouTube: It‘s with the very outspoken, yet controversial „Bitcoin Maxi, Not Bitcoin Maxi“ Fred Krueger He dropped quite some punchlines during the show. I also tried to challenge him on a few things (especially his view on Solana😅) Enjoy and thanks for liking, as always🙏

Next LNMS episode I just published this show with the famous @Lawrence Lepard This was quite a fun episode. His statement, „not all boomers are stupid“ was quite entertaining and obviously true as we rookies can still learn a lot from older generations! We should have a ton of respect for what people like him built, despite the fiat system wreaking havoc on us today! Thank you🦾🤝 Enjoy and don‘t forget to like and comment! This really helps the show!

New US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said: “𝑊𝑒'𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑈𝑆 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒. 𝑊𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐼 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑖𝑡'𝑠 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑒 𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔.” CT is still wondering what Bessent meant by this. Here’s one (likely) interpretation: 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 (𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗳𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀): The US government (US Treasury) owns a lot of gold. Think of the US Treasury like the government’s bank account. Revaluing this gold to today’s market price would increase the US Treasury’s assets. The US Treasury currently holds 261,498,926.241 troy ounces of gold, equivalent to approximately 8,134 tons. At today’s market price of $2,900 per troy ounce, the total value amounts to around $758 billion. However, this gold is still recorded at a book value of $42 per troy ounce, totaling just $11 billion. This means the market value is nearly 68 times higher than the official book value. By revaluing its gold reserves to reflect current market value, the government would instantly recognize an additional $747 billion in assets—effectively realizing a substantial increase in its wealth without selling a single ounce of gold. 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 (𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗢𝘄𝗲𝘀): To balance this out, the government issues "gold certificates" (fancy IOUs backed by gold) to the Federal Reserve (the US central bank). These certificates tell the Fed: “Hey, we now officially say our gold is worth more. Here’s proof you can use to balance your books.” 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 (𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗳𝗳 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱’𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁): The Fed receives those new gold certificates from the Treasury. These certificates increase the Fed’s assets because they represent valuable claims backed by US gold. 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 (𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗢𝘄𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱): Here’s where it gets interesting: the Fed, in return, credits the US Treasury’s checking account (called the Treasury General Account, or TGA) with new money equal to the increased value of the gold. The Treasury can now spend this newly credited money on public projects, debt repayment, or stimulus—without borrowing or raising taxes. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗜𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 "𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁" 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝗤𝗘): Normally, the Fed prints money (QE) by buying bonds from the market to pump cash into the economy. But in this case, the Fed is not buying anything from the public. Instead, it’s crediting the Treasury’s account simply because the gold is now valued higher. Result: The Treasury now has more cash to spend, similar to QE, but without the Fed purchasing assets from banks or investors.

Here‘s the latest LNMS episode. This time with Shezhan from Lava. We once more talk about Bitcoin-backed loans, why the Bitcoin blockchain is a more elegant solution for this than Ethereum (or other blockchains) and how you as a private individual can use Lava yourself: Thanks for liking and commenting🔥🙏 #Bitcoin #non-custodial #borrowing #Coinbase #loans #cryptocurrency #lending #liquidationrisk #oracles #wrapped #financial #security #DLCs #smart #contracts #stablecoins #interest #riskmanagement #fintech

This one was a banger! @Nik Bhatia delivered a true masterclass on money and its intricacies. We talked about the differences betwen cash, currency and credit, what money is, why Bitcoin is better money and how fiat money is actually created. Is it the central banks, the commercial banks, the Basel Committee, the Treasury? Hint: It‘s more like a free for all! Youtube: #Bitcoin #macroeconomics #creditmoney #currency #financialsystem #BitcoinAge #layeredmoney #cash #globalbankingdollar #moneycreation #inflation #centralbanks #demand #treasuries #reserves #commoditymoney #bankmoney #BTC

I believe it’s crucial to engage with people who have different perspectives, which is why I really enjoyed this discussion with Tom Dunleavy. We covered topics like celebrity coins, the role of moral judgment in financial decisions, and Ethereum’s foundation war! YouTube: Thanks for sharing it around if you like

Last week, the buzz around Bitcoin and digital assets hit a new high with a flurry of initiatives making waves. I needed the perfect person to help make sense of it all. Enter @Alex Thorn from Galaxy —there’s no one better to break it down. In this conversation, we cover: -The roles of the crypto task force, digital asset committees, and the crypto working group -Why Trump’s crypto executive order is better than Biden’s. -The significance of SAB 121, its recent repeal, and why it’s a game-changer for the industry. -What is Bitcoin‘s role in all of this? What is a stockpile and what about a strategic Bitcoin reserve? #crypto #regulation #executiveorder #AlexThorne #Galaxy #CFTC #SEC #digitalassets #Trumpadministration #blockchain #SAB121 #cryptocurrency #banks #custody #Bitcoin #stockpile #financialmarkets