May latest talk for LNMS is live This time I talked to Richard Byworth exploring what MicroStrategy is really doing. He did such a good job, explaining the intricacies in detail! Even I felt the need to re-listen the entire episode again to get all the gems and insights he shared. Listen on YouTube: Don‘t get to share, comment, like and subscribe! Thanks! #crypto, #ETFs, #USelections, #Bitcoin, #regulation, #institutionaladoption, #strategicreserve, #marketstructure, #investment, #digitalassets #mstr #saylor #michaelsaylor #microstrategy #financialengineering #fiatattack #ATM #volatility #LNMS

SOMETHING BIIIIIIGGGGGG JUST HAPPENED TODAY This not only made my day, but my week and beyond! Stay tuned #Bitcoin #Mexico #RSP

Here‘s my latest interview with cypherpunk @Jameson Lopp We talk about Bitcoin, what power Bitcoin core developers hold, what to be weary of and how to think about the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin and its holders. Check out the interview below 👇🏻🔥 And don‘t forget to like, comment and subscribe on YouTube 🙏💪🏻 #Bitcoin #Decentralization #Ossification #Governance #QuantumComputing #CoreDevelopers #InstitutionalInfluence #Cryptocurrency #SelfCustody #Blockchain

Here‘s my recent episode with Nic Carter. Although some Bitcoiners call him a heretic, I still find his perspective quite unique and refreshing. Check it out 👇🏻🤝🎧 #crypto #Bitcoin #stablecoins #decentralization #financial #privacy #regulation #Satoshi #market #trends #economic #impact #stablecoins #Bitcoin #Layer #meme #coins #crypto #technology #freedom #technology #financial #systems #decentralized #finance #investment #digital #currency #sacredcows

It is a dream coming true. Just a few days ago, I had the chance to interview the brilliant @Lyn Alden We dove deep into topics like fiscal dominance, monetary debasement, and debt monetization—and, as always, Lyn broke it all down in a way that even my non-finance friends could easily follow. We also explored liquidity, how this easing cycle stands apart from previous ones, and whether anything could actually "slow this train." To top it off, Lyn dropped a sharp insight: If a decentralized spreadsheet is a threat to governments, it says more about the governments than the spreadsheet itself. Check below for the entire video👇📺 #LNMS #SignaloverNoise #FiscalDominance #MonetaryDebasement #Bitcoin #Investing #Inflation #DebtMonetization #EconomicTrends #AssetManagement #FinancialSystems #FederalReserve #TreasuryPurchases #Bitcoin #Liquidity #AssetPrices #CentralBanks #GovernmentPolicy #EasingCycle #InvestmentStrategies #MarketTrends

With the US elections looming and Trump’s odds on Polymarket skyrocketing, my latest chat with @npub1s9z7...nszc couldn’t be more timely. We dive into: -how the election impacts Bitcoin (and vice versa) -why Joe thinks that a Kamla win could make Bitcoin's number go up even more than a Trump victory -what a potential worst case scenario for Coinbase could look like in case the lose to regulators -why the SEC is failing at its core mission of protecting investors. Timestamps: 00:00 The Significance of Bitcoin in US Elections 03:05 Joe Carlasare: A Bitcoin Advocate's Journey 06:01 The Impact of US Elections on Bitcoin and Crypto 08:48 Fiscal Stimulus: The Key Driver for Bitcoin's Price 12:11 Regulatory Landscape: Bitcoin vs. Broader Crypto Space 17:57 The Future of Bitcoin Amidst Fiscal Spending 20:51 Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty 24:10 The Growing Acceptance of Bitcoin in Traditional Finance 29:14 Political Impacts on Digital Assets 32:02 Congressional Dysfunction and Crypto Legislation 34:25 Market Demand and Institutional Adoption 38:10 The Future of Bitcoin in Finance 40:03 Coinbase and SEC Challenges 46:10 The Complexity of Securities Law 51:18 Investor Protection and Regulatory Challenges #Bitcoin #elections #fiscalstimulus #regulation #cryptocurrency #SEC #Coinbase #digitalassets #institutionalinvestors #market #trumptrade #polymarket #electionodds #harris #trump #maga #musk #signalovernoise #LNMS

I sat down with Spencer Hakimian to discuss all things macro. On the podcast, Spencer drops his slightly bearish outlook for stocks in 2025 and adds a BUT... Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction Spencer Hakimian and Tulu Capital 01:57 Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions 08:05 Investment Strategies Amidst Global Uncertainty 13:42 Current Macro Economic Landscape in the US 19:20 The Role of Gold and Bitcoin in Today's Economy 27:31 Global Economic Dynamics: Japan and China 40:31 Comparing Current Easing Cycles to Past Experiences #macrohedgefund #geopoliticaltensions #investmentstrategies #gold #Bitcoin #USeconomy #Japan #China #easingcycles #macro #war #israel #iran #investing

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞 Would you rather take a shrinking risk of holding something that might lose all real value, or face a growing risk of holding something that almost certainly will? Let me explain: On one hand, you have Bitcoin. It’s a revolutionary asset with a capped supply and an adoption curve that hasn’t peaked yet. Yes, there’s still risk—it’s a new technology. But according to the Lindy effect, the longer it sticks around, the less likely it is to fail. On the other hand, you have government bonds. They form the bedrock of today’s financial system, and thanks to implicit (and increasingly explicit) government backing, their survival in nominal terms seems guaranteed. However, due to the mounting pressure of the debt spiral, the chance of these bonds going to zero in real terms—thanks to inflation and devaluation—is on the rise. So, which risk would you rather run? #Bitcoin #BTC #Governmentbonds #treasuries

Everyone is talking about memecoins but me and my guest Spencer Hakimian are talking all things macro! Here are out talking points: -Israel-Iran and what it means for our portfolios? -Where might oil be headed? -How to think about the upcoming US elections from a macro perspective -What‘s in store for stocks and Bitcoin in 2025? -Why gold has been outperfoming lately Watch out for the full episode to be published soon! #macro #bitcoin #gold #geopolitics #btc #portfolio #war #israel #iran #oil #markets #USElections #investing #LessNoiseMoreSignal #LNMS #SignaloverNoise

People are asking why $62k has become the new $58k for Bitcoin, and why it’s not breaking higher despite being at the start of the rate-cutting cycle. The answer lies in the current wave of market uncertainty. Let’s break it down. 🕵️🔎 First, we’ve got the looming US election, casting a shadow over the market like a modern-day Damocles’ sword. According to Polymarket, Trump currently holds a significant lead with a 6% margin. However, until the results are in, this uncertainty is keeping the market in a holding pattern. Also, the market remains uncertain about the Fed's next interest rate move. Just 15 days ago, on September 24, there was nearly a 60% probability of a 50 bps rate cut. Now? That chance has plummeted to 0! This dramatic shift highlights the level of uncertainty gripping the market, and uncertainty is always a market drag—Bitcoin included. But here’s the kicker: November 5 brings the US elections, clearing up political uncertainty, and by November 7, we'll have more clarity on interest rates. Early Nov will be interesting for sure! #Bitcoin #USElections #InterestRates #50bsp

𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐲 𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐚 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 Having recently started working for a Bitcoin bank in Switzerland, I was introduced to the “privilege of having to” save through the traditional pension system. As a libertarian-minded, young Bitcoiner I do have my fair share of struggles with the traditional pension structure and I pretty much avoided it my entire life up until now. After countless discussions with my parents and father-in-law about the flaws and unsustainability of the pension system, I felt compelled to delve deeper into understanding how it works. Today, while I'm still skeptical and believe that young people like me should put the bulk of their savings elsewhere, I've come to realize the resilience of traditional pension systems. In fact, I used to think pension systems are on the verge of collapse and that it would be wise to withdraw any savings sooner rather than later. However, I've realized that this risk isn't as imminent as I once believed. How come? The answer lies in the fact that traditional pension systems are ultimately supported by their respective governments. When push comes to shove, our benevolent fiat overlords ensure that these pension funds remain solvent. A prime example of this occurred during the UK gilt crisis in late September 2022, which saw a sharp decline in UK treasury bond prices. The intervention in the gilt market during that period was crucial in saving the British pension system from a potential crisis. Here's how it happened: In years of low interest rates, UK pension funds leveraged their investments using Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) strategies. When bond prices dropped, these funds faced significant losses, triggering demands for additional collateral that many pension funds struggled to provide. By stepping in to stabilize the UK gilt market, the Bank of England prevented a widespread collapse of LDI funds, averting a financial crisis that could have severely affected pensioners. Given this outright government backstop for pension funds, why wouldn’t you want to be saving through this vehicle? I started this conversation by saying that I am still skeptical about pension funds and that I would put money elsewhere. This is because in real-terms traditional pension systems are falling behind. Because of regulations, these funds have to be invested in government bonds. When governments, in coordination with their central banks, prop up treasury bonds to support pension funds, the resulting measures—no matter how complex and opaque to the average person—are likely to erode the purchasing power of those savings over time. So, what’s the solution? It’s essential to look beyond pension funds. While stocks can be a viable option, I believe that Bitcoin offers the most promising investment opportunity. In a world where government-backed collateral, primarily in the form of bonds, is continually devalued to sustain the pension system, Bitcoin represents a new form of market-based collateral with tremendous upside. I firmly believe that Bitcoin is well-positioned to become the ultimate market-based collateral of the future. Although Bitcoin lacks government backing and regulatory support—similar to gold—its market size is poised to rival that of U.S. government bonds. Once that happens, its liquidity will compete with that of U.S. treasuries. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is entirely virtual, leading to lower custody costs, cheaper transportation, and easier verification. These advantages make Bitcoin a more efficient asset compared to gold, but it has not yet surpassed U.S. government bonds. However, when considering Bitcoin's global accessibility, 24/7 liquidity, instant settlement, and uniform fungibility—especially when contrasted with the fragmented U.S. bond market, which includes securities with varying maturities—it's clear that Bitcoin has compelling advantages. In conclusion, we can say that government-backed pension systems are the ultimate savings technology for boomers. They have served this generation well throughout their lives, and likely will continue to do so. For millennials and younger generations, Bitcoin represents the next evolution in savings technology. By adopting it now, you stand to benefit disproportionately, just as previous generations have capitalized on their own era's ultimate savings vehicles. #Bitcoin #PensionFunds #SavingsTechnology #FinancialLiteracy #RetirementPlanning #Investing #Cryptocurrency #WealthManagement #Libertarian #FutureOfFinance #InvestmentStrategy #MillennialFinance #FinancialIndependence #EconomicFreedom #DigitalAssets

Episode 3 of Less Noise more Signal is live This time with @AnselLindner Ansel is a true Bitcoiner with very contrarian takes! We talk about his contrarian views on central banks, money printing, and the current economic landscape. This is definitely an episode you don't want to miss as some of your assumptions could be challenged - which is a good thing after all! Check out the episode 👇 #Deflation #Inflation #CreditBubble #MoneyPrinting #Europe #FinancialCrisis #BankingCrisis #Liquidity #Retailers #LargePoolOfCapital #RiskOff #BlackRock #MoralHazard #CentralBanks #QE #Signalovernoise

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁 𝗝𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸: "𝗧𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? 𝗬𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴!" @_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ & @Pascal Hügli dive into why understanding whether you're a trader, investor, or saver is crucial—and how knowing which "bucket" you fall into can shape your investment strategy. We also break down the power of enhanced DCA and explain why following the "Sell and buy back later" crowd is a fool's errand. Plus, we discuss how Bitcoin investors can identify absolute bear market bottoms and local tops during bull runs using on-chain metrics! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:58 Understanding Market Signals and Human Behavior 05:48 The Investor vs. Trader Mindset 09:01 Bitcoin as the World's Best Long-Term Conviction Asset 12:13 On-Chain Analysis: A New Perspective 15:00 Investing Frameworks for Bitcoin 17:53 The Power of Enhanced DCA 21:13 Market Cycles: Predicting Tops and Bottoms 24:00 The Future of Bitcoin Market Dynamics Enjoy🤜🤟 #Bitcoin #Investing #marketanalysis #onchain #trading #psychology #marketcycles, #dca #crypto #signalovernoise

Who here agrees? Found at Token2049

Nice. Just met @paul keating in Singapore and he helped me onboard my wife and her company‘s boss to #nostr 🔥🔥 Thanks sir, much appreciated🙏

The dollar is done. There is nothing stopping this train.“ @Edward Snowden just quoted @Lyn Alden in his amazing speech at Token 2049 Lets gooo. We are winning!

„The dollar is done. There is nothing stopping this train.“ @Edward Snowden just quoted @Lyn Alden / @LynAldenContact (RSS Feed) in his amazing speech at Token 2049 Lets gooo. We are winning!

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿: "𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝗽𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻" @André Dragosch, PhD and @Pascal Hügli talk about all things recession. Is a recession on the horizon? If so, what key indicators are flashing warning signs? Is the U.S. government, with its war-time deficit spending, distorting economic indicators? And most importantly—why stay bullish on Bitcoin in face of a recession? Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:11 André's Early Days in Bitcoin 14:45 Understanding the Current Economic Landscape 29:51 Recession Indicators and Their Implications 45:00 Bitcoin's Future: Catalysts and Predictions Enjoy🤜🤟 #Bitcoin #recession #economicindicators #cryptocurrency #investment, #macro #cryptomarket #monetarypolicy #lessnoisemoresignal #signalovernoise

A recently had a post on how the US Treasury is influencing the longer-dated bond curve:

Pascal Hügli

Treasury bill, or short-term US debt paper, has historically ranged between 15% and 20%. In recent months, this percentage of T-bill of total US de...

Here‘s some more insight on this topic: Stephen Miran et al. call it: "Activist Treasury Issuance" This podcast should be worth your time: