A recently had a post on how the US Treasury is influencing the longer-dated bond curve:

Pascal Hügli

Treasury bill, or short-term US debt paper, has historically ranged between 15% and 20%. In recent months, this percentage of T-bill of total US de...

Here‘s some more insight on this topic: Stephen Miran et al. call it: "Activist Treasury Issuance" This podcast should be worth your time:

Who here on #nostr has taken the orange pill and has found a new type of existentialism? feat. Orangecrypto #Bitcoin

𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 I just finished reading Matthew Pines‘ brilliant paper, “𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑁𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 & 𝐵𝑖𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑖𝑛,” from the Bitcoin Policy Institute, and oooh boy, it’s amazing. A few key points really clicked for me; I increasingly believe that the future macro-order will look as follows: 𝐎𝐧 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞, 𝐰𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 (𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚/𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚) 𝐝𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝, 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐁𝐃𝐂 𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬. 𝐎𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 (𝐔𝐒 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬) 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐬. At the start of this geopolitical contest, the U.S. was the undisputed winner. Thanks to having the global reserve currency (USD) and the world’s safest reserve asset (U.S. Treasuries), capital flowed into US markets, forcing countries like China to rely on the dollar for trade while financing America’s debt, benefiting their geopolitical opponent even more. However, China has found a way out. Instead of recycling dollar reserves into treasuries, they’ve been buying hard assets, real estate and Western equities. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China is also lending dollars to emerging markets in exchange for collateral like infrastructure (ports, land, dams). But China is going further. By building a cross-bridge CBDC network with its partners, China can deepen financial ties and bypass the U.S. dollar system ever more. All of this increasingly looks like a “heads China wins, tails US loses” situation. So, how can the US and its allies counteract this? Judging by what’s happening on Wall Street and the conversations happening in Washington DC, the US is discovering the power of Bitcoin and dollar-based stablecoins as a tool to counter these adversary efforts to challenge US geoeconomic power while reinforcing liberal value systems around the world. For one, it can be argued that soon-to-be regulated private stablecoins are winning the fight against China’s Belt and Road initiative and cross-bridged CBDC arrangements on the US’s behalf. After all, market-driven transaction volume in the biggest US dollar denominated stablecoins vastly outpacing the CBDC efforts of the People’s Bank of China to-date. Global demand for stablecoins, which are backed by US bonds, could become a crucial tool for U.S. debt financing. In a way, US denominated stablecoins act as indirect tax levied on dollar bitcoin flows. How so? They can be viewed as a tax because foreign users indirectly "pay" by contributing to the demand for US assets, which allows the U.S. to finance its government debt more easily and cheaply. Essentially, international users of stablecoins are helping fund the U.S. government, much like how a tax supports government revenue. It’s quite ironic when you think about it: the rise of Bitcoin, alongside today’s decentralized global altcoin casino, has unintentionally gifted the U.S. government a new strategic macro buyer for its debt—one poised to become even more influential in the near future. Put simply: if it weren’t for global shitcoin trading, stablecoins wouldn’t have grown as rapidly as they have. In short, Bitcoin and stablecoins are emerging as some of the most potent geopolitical tools the US and its allies have against Eastern powers. It’s high time key decision-makers recognize that allowing Bitcoin to flourish—potentially even surpassing gold in monetary significance—would disproportionately benefit the US. After all, American citizens and companies hold a substantial portion of the global Bitcoin supply, and its adoption would fuel growth in US capital markets. Bitcoin and the US dollar naturally complement each other, with US. dollar stablecoins serving as the crucial link between them! Stablecoin issuance will by driven by demand for Bitcoin and its rising dollar price. @npub1tccn...e6fh put it well, when it wrote: “As the US finances more deficits w/ T-Bills, inflation rises secularly = BTC up = more stablecoins = more T-Bills = inflation up more = BTC up = more stablecoins = more T-Bills... wash, rinse, repeat. This should also prompt the US to adopt a light tax policy on Bitcoin, recognizing that Bitcoin demand fuels stablecoin growth—and these stablecoins already act like an international "tax" on a growing global base of users that support US government debt. #Bitcoin #Stablecoins #Geopolitics #USDollar #CBDC #Macroeconomics

Being a critic of anything is important. However, here are three things I found to be just wrong criticism: „Who will build the roads?“ -> Statists falsely assume no one would build the roads „Who will run the relays?“ -> No-coiners falsely believe that #nostr is not gonna work „Who will buy the bonds?“ -> Fiat haters falsely think, the government bond market of Western sovereigns like the United Stated is about to collapse

Have you heard about Travis Kling‘s theory „A Lack of Pretense That Any of This Shit Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything" and „Financial Nihilism: The Zeitgeist of Young America". In it he raises some great points about how monetary relativism caused by global central banks has been driving people to speculate on shitcoins! I have been in "crypto" for the past 8 years as well. For me personally though, I don't feel like being pulled into the pervasive quiet quitting mentality he describes. As a matter of fact, I never felt more excited about this space. However, this is mainly because of #Bitcoin! Being an open-minded person, trained as a financial journalist, I always had the ambition to study and understand the entire space. This has always helped me not drift into the Bitcoin Maxi camp, for better I would argue. Nonetheless, I have always been a Bitcoin realist. Today, my excitment is growing because Bitcoin is showing real world adoption. The Bitcoin ETFs have only been the start. The big US banks are coming, it's not if but when as Howard Lutnick has been pointing out in one of his latest X posts:

X (formerly Twitter)

Howard Lutnick (@howardlutnick) on X

Over the last five years, #Bitcoin has been an outsider to the tradfi community, and it’s only now dipping its toe into global finance. Cantor wi...

Also, there is a lot of interesting stuff happening around scaling Bitcoin with REAL layer-2 technologies. There is decentralized social media taking off in the form of #Nostr. The financialization of Bitcoin is happening as we speak. I can see it at the very bank I am working for. However, this inevitable financialization mustn't be bad. In fact, there are technology providers out there like @npub19yfz...mc68 that will make sure the financing of Bitcoin will happen in a peer-to-peer, non-custodial, open, transparent way thanks to multi-signature and collaborative custody - an upgrade to the system. I recently got to talk about these topics with @Max Kei and @preston on a recent podcast. You can check the episode here: So, why am I telling you all this? I want to prove a point that „crypto“ can still be interesting, if you shift your focus and attention to Bitcoin! Also, I feel like I have the responsibility to convey this message to all the laggards (boomers, etc.) that are now looking at crypto and want to invest in all sorts of projects. At the bank, I talk to a lot of them, on a regulary basis. Well, they are behind the curve and don't know yet that a lot of crypto enthusiasts have quietly given up on crypto... As such, I feel like this message is very important and needs to be presented to older folks so they can be warned and their invested wealth potentially be protected! So, to sum things up: I will keep on pushing. Also, I will be starting my own podcast very soon and I hope to provide content that is signal over noise. #lessnoisemoresignal

„Crypto“ is among the top 10 least attractive hobbies men can have according to women. Ergo, crypto wealth might not help you to get girls after all. Interestingly, reading is considered the most attractive trait men can have. True Bitcoiners , who have done their research have done a lot reading, or else they woule not be Bitcoiners. Ergo, Bitcoin knowledge is attractive in the eyes of girls 👀? Related: Even @Michael Saylor says that he has never met a Bitcoin critic who had spent even 100 hours of studying #Bitcoin Most importantly: Crypto is NOT Bitcoin

For our upcoming book, we’ve been exploring the history surrounding the founding of the Bank of England, often referred to as a "revolution bank" by contemporary commentators. What stands out to me are the striking parallels between this monumental project and the development of Ethereum. Both embody a blend of meticulous planning and inherent hubris. Despite the founders' well-meaning intentions, the reality often strays far from their original vision—true for both the BoE and Ethereum. Just as the BoE became the blueprint for central banks across the globe, Ethereum has inspired a vast ecosystem of crypto networks. One might argue that Ethereum is the modern-day equivalent of the BoE—a project aimed at creating and steering “optimal” monetary systems, yet accompanied by unintended consequences and interventions. From a high-level perspective, I would categorize the systems as follows: Central banking, as seen with institutions like the BoE, revolves around creating money, controlled by a select few—the "high priests" of fiat currency. Platforms like Ethereum democratize money creation, making it accessible to a wider group (though it still concentrates power in certain hands, it’s arguably more open than the traditional central bank model). Bitcoin represents the attempt to remove human control over money altogether—designed to prevent anyone from arbitrarily creating currency. There will be a more detailed post on how Ethereum resembles the BoE. Also, thanks to @preston for agreeing to take a look at our book and support us with his knowledge on the various Bitcoin topics🙏

It gives me great joy that I was recently invited by @preston to his podcast. Together with @Max Kei, we talked about: -Why peer-to-peer lending is so important in the Bitcoin context -How Swiss banks like are so advanced when it comes to Bitcoin -Why, stablecoins will most definitely be adopted by traditional banks - And how banks should be thinking about tokenizing all sorts of assets. As someone who has been in the Bitcoin space for about 8 years 🕰️ and knows how real Bitcoiners truly think, I want to take this knowledge and contribute to the bank’s understanding of Bitcoin and Bitcoiners! 💡🏦 Here's our talk: #Bitcoin #tokenization #digitalassets #peertopeer #lending #bitcoinbanks

Hello world! 🌍 The Cantonal Bank of Zurich is now offering its clients the option to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. 🚀 This marks yet another major step forward for the Swiss banking industry. Earlier this year, the third-largest bank, Post Finance, also introduced its own crypto offering. It seems like only a matter of time before the two largest banks (looking at you, UBS 👀) will need to follow suit! When it comes to Bitcoin and digital assets, Swiss banks are far ahead of their US counterparts. 🇨🇭 In the US, regulatory hurdles still prevent banks from fully engaging with Bitcoin. Offering custody for digital assets like Bitcoin involves significant costs due to the capital backing required (thanks to Basel III regulations 💰). However, in Switzerland, thanks to changes in Swiss law and banking regulations, banks can separate digital assets from their balance sheets. This allows them to offer true custody accounts, ensuring that assets belong to the client. By law, these assets are fully segregated from the bank's estate during bankruptcy and are returned to the client. 🔐✅ At Archip Maerki Baumann, this is why we're able to offer a segregated wallet for each of our clients holding Bitcoin with us. As I understand it, something similar is possible in Wyoming 🇺🇸, thanks to the efforts of @Caitlin Long and others, but it's still rare in most of the United States. #Bitcoin #Crypto #DigitalAssets #SwissBanking #FinancialInnovation

Happy to share my talk „Pitching Bitcoin to Boomers“ that I was honored to give at Baltic Honeybadger conference organized by @Hodl Hodl @npub19yfz...mc68 @Max Kei and all the team! I was representing our bank Maerki Baumann as a Bitcoin investment manager. Yes, this is my official title😉 Thanks again for this opportunity! #Bitcoin #portfolio #assetmanagement

If almost feels ironic that you @miljan look like Leonidas from the movie 300!😎 View quoted note →

Treasury bill, or short-term US debt paper, has historically ranged between 15% and 20%. In recent months, this percentage of T-bill of total US debt has broken above 20% and it might well be on it‘s way to 25% (or even higher). As institutions like pension funds are starved from getting long-dates securities, other have been buying the short end. Who? Banks, credit providers as well as the infamous US stablecoiner provider Tether. Why is this significant? This is covet yield curve control or yield supression because it supresses the long-end of the curve. As a matter of fact, the yield of long-dated treasuries should actually be higher, about 100 basis points by conservative estimates. The question we need to ask is how will the US get investors back into long-dated treasuries? -Bring down short-term policy rates (significantly) to make long-end debt more attractive. -Push for a recession to create save haven demand for long-term treasuries (beat steepener). Rather improbable, no? -Go new ways. For example, as @preston has explained, what if the US Treasuries were to back long-dated bonds with a Bitcoin component. Could this be enticing enough for regular investors to buy into long-end Treasuries?

When I lived in Brazil for almost a year, brazilians struck me as a very hands-on populace. Now that X is banned in their country, I feel like many tech-savvy Brazilians will make it to #nostr Bon dia cara🥳

About to go live with @preston and @Max Kei to talk about Bitcoin, pristine collateral, peer-to-perr lending, pitching Bitcoin to boomers and more. Super Stoked!😎🏋️

How to call out scammer/fake account on #Nostr?

I hear that #Nostr, in combination with #Bitcoin Lightning enables a sort of „international decentralized open-source Venmo“ So what wallet already is connected to Nostrs‘ public payment directory? Would love to showcase to my students tomorrow. Anyone? @Lyn Alden

What‘s your #nostr pilling moment? Please tell me! Eventually everyone will have such s moment (epiphany)

Bitcoin wealth holders are growing, in numbers and in wealth! According to Henley & Partners‘s most recent report, these are the numbers: -85,400 fiat millionaires (1 year growth 112%) -156 centi-millionaires (1 year growth 100%) -11 billionaires (1 year growth 83%) The implications of #bitcoinaires supplanting today's fiat cantillonaires is something most people do not give enough thinking power to. With #Bitcoin increasing in price, much of what we take for granted today will change. This change will be driven by the ones arbitraging the understanding of Bitcoin's ascent. Here are a few thoughts: -Banking and financing landscape will change as financial institutions will increasingly align their products with the demands of bitcoiners. -Regulations will change in many different areas as bitcoiners will have the power to lobby successfully. Because of their influence (financially and culturally), politicians will increasingly suck up to bitcoiners. -Global Power dynamics will change as the influence of wealthy Bitcoiners will have geopolitical consequences across the spectrum of nations. -Money funding innovation will be channeled into the areas that are dearest and nearest to bitcoiners. Study their values and ethics to anticipate where this money is headed. -Architecture and sceneries are going to change in accordance with the long-term, low-time preferences of bitcoiners. -Wealth inequality between the top 0.1 % of bitcoiners and the recent will increase as information disseminates and information distribution is not equal, leaving too many Bitcoins for the ones stacking today! Would love to hear, what others think. Anecdotes and concrete examples showing us a glimpse of the future would be very much welcomed! Link to report:

Henley & Partners

Crypto Wealth Report 2024

The Crypto Wealth Report 2024 is Henley & Partners’ second annual publication for those following cryptocurrency, private wealth, and investment ...

I saw that I can set different sat ranges for zaps. However, if I zap, it has always just zapped the „first“ rate I set. How can I choose? Thx

Not sure who I can give props to for creating this image. However, I know exactly who to give props to for making non-inflatable money possible and making hodling worth my while! #satoshi #nakamoto