🇺🇸🇮🇷 So what the hell happened over the weekend? - DDG report So now that the dust has settled a bit, we’ve spoken to people and had time to analyze the sequence of events. Here are the two most likely scenarios (albeit very similar) for what happened over the weekend in Iran with the so-called “Search and Rescue Operation” to retrieve the downed F-15E crew. It’s now fairly clear that the weekend events by the Americans were a Joint Special Operations Command attempt to establish a FOB (Forward Operating Base) in Isfahan. The question remains whether the F-15E was part of that operation, or whether the downing of the jet triggered it. We lean toward the theory that the F-15E was the “first wave” of the operation. Why? We’re fortunate that Trump isn’t particularly careful with his messaging. In one of his post-rescue posts, he said the rescued WSO (Weapons Systems Officer) was a “respected Colonel.” That immediately raises a red flag. It’s not common for a colonel (O-6) to serve as a WSO in an F-15E Strike Eagle. WSOs are typically mid-career officers—captains (O-3) or majors (O-4)—paired with pilots of similar rank. However, a colonel could serve as a WSO if designated as the mission commander (MC) for a larger, multi-aircraft operation. U.S. Air Force doctrine allows a senior officer like a colonel to occupy the WSO seat as MC, overseeing all mission phases regardless of the pilot’s junior rank (e.g., captain). That, paired with what we know happened later, points to a broader mission. The other element is the scale of the operation. The U.S. military didn’t just “find an abandoned airstrip south of Isfahan.” The airstrip where we believe the U.S. attempted to establish the FOB was likely surveyed months in advance. U.S. Special Forces don’t just “wing it” on operations like this. The narrative being presented—such as the claim that the MC-130J “got stuck”—suggests something that Special Operations planners simply don’t do. As far as we know, the MC-130J Commando II aircraft that transported the troops—and likely the “Little Bird” helicopters—sustained damage from Iranian attacks, which prevented them from taking off. The shrapnel damage seen in images supports that. We don’t believe they crash-landed or were shot down. The only evidence cited for that is the bent rotor blades on one of the engines in aftermath photos. But the MC-130J is not a standard C-130, which uses four-blade steel propellers. The Special Forces variant uses six-bladed Dowty R391 composite propellers, built with a carbon-fiber structure rather than metal. The bent propellers are most likely the result of the resin matrix softening—effectively “melting”—under extreme conditions. Other images support this, as the propellers appear to shred and snap rather than cleanly break. Why Isfahan? The obvious explanation is the collection of nuclear material, as the region hosts multiple facilities such as Natanz, where enriched uranium is believed to be stored. But there are other factors. Isfahan hosts a large Jewish community, which would likely be influenced by Mossad and CIA operations. The airstrip was not chosen at the last minute to rescue a WSO, with massive assets assembled on the fly. It’s rumored the airstrip had previously been surveyed by Israeli Shaldag (Unit 5101), an elite Israeli Air Force special operations unit. As for staging: at roughly the same time, Iran struck Camp Buehring in Kuwait, which is believed to have been the staging ground for the operation. This suggests Iran had prior knowledge—and reinforces the idea that the base was tied to the American operation. There are several other inconsistencies in the U.S. narrative: how a badly injured WSO managed to climb a mountain, why the extraction point was established in Isfahan when evacuation to Kuwait or Iraq was possible, and so on.

Some reports are saying Former CIA officer Larry Johnson confirmed that the Pentagon is lying to the public. The American F-15 shot down in Iran was actually preparing for a massive ground attack on a nuclear facility in Natanz. The rescue operation turned into a complete disaster.

Iran expects a ground war in this new video released by IRGC

🇭🇺 "We have placed the Hungarian section of the TurkStream gas pipeline under reinforced military monitoring and protection." - Viktor Orbán

🇮🇱 Israeli firefighter on the ground in Haifa: "There is significant toxic material burning here, involving energy infrastructure. Our units are currently managing the scene. That's all for now."

Fair assessment by Patricia Marin's U.S. rescue teams were ambushed, suffering losses worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but according to the U.S., they managed to accomplish the mission. According to official information, the second American pilot managed to hide for more than 24 hours and was rescued in an operation where, as I have reported in recent days, Iran lets them in, but getting out is the real problem. It appears that American forces tried to use an old agricultural airstrip in the region, but Iran had already prepared a large-scale ambush. At least two variants of the C-130, possibly MC-130J, were lost, along with one or more AH-6/MH-6 Little Bird helicopters. There are also reports of two Black Hawks being hit, but which managed to leave the area safely. Contrary to the official version that the units were destroyed on the ground, the images clearly show damage caused by air defenses on the aircraft wreckage, and this may cast doubt on any other official version of the event, including potentially much larger losses. The two MC-130J Commando II each cost between US$ 114-165 million, but with special SOF configurations they easily reach US$ 130-165 million per unit, which puts the damage between US$ 260-330 million. The MH-6 Little Bird costs about US$ 2-4 million in the basic version and US$ 7.5 million in the more equipped variants like the ones used in missions such as this one in Iran. This is the minimum estimate of the damages, but the losses may be higher when all the assets are accounted for. In the last 72 hours, the damage tally also includes 1 F-15, 1 A-10, 2 MQ-9 drones also shot down, and damage to anther A-10, two Black Hawks, plus one CH-47F destroyed on the ground in Kuwait, bringing the total damage close to half a billion dollars in just the last 3 days. If the information on casualties released so far is correct, despite the losses, the rescue operation was a success when viewed in isolation. However, it calls into question everything that has been said by the U.S. so far about Iranian air defenses and reinforces what we have been saying about the gradual deployment of these systems, which, according to my own estimates, Iran still has hundreds of. In addition, this latest event shows what I had already said: Iran is a master of ambushes, with a highly consolidated asymmetric doctrine developed across multiple conflicts that include wars in Yemen, Syria, and through various proxies. Iranian ambush capability comes out strengthened, and if the pilot rescue really occurred, the American special forces come out of this operation looking very good.

Take this with a grain of salt but some reports indicate a confirmed presence of a Russian nuclear submarines near the Strait of Hormuz. Moscow has officially deployed six submarines, including two nuclear ones, near the Strait of Hormuz for a discreet mission to protect Iranian infrastructure, according to these reports. Their primary role is to prevent the US and Israel from freely breaking the blockade or approaching Iranian shores. This deployment sends a strong political message to the West, signaling that any major escalation against Iran could involve Russia.

Theres an interesting theory that somewhat makes sense, that the rescue mission was in fact an attempt to infiltrate Isfahan Nuclear facilities to retrieve the nuclear material. The plan failed and soldiers were extracted.

🇷🇸🇭🇺 Explosives were found near the gas pipeline from Serbia to Hungary - Serbian President Vucic

NYT reports hundreds of special forces troops and dozens of US warplanes and helicopters were deployed to locate the downed F-15 crew member in Iran. US aircraft struck Iranian convoys to keep them away from the area where the pilot was hiding. 2 US C-130 planes meant to extract the airmen got stuck in sand in Iran and were destroyed by US forces to avoid capture. Iran's IRGC, however claims they were shot down by Iranian fire.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Chief National Security Correspondent for Fox News reports that the WSO of the downed F-15 has been exfiltrated from Iran: Fox News can confirm that the 2nd crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from behind enemy lines in Iran are all safely out of Iran. That according to two senior US officials and multiple well placed sources in the region. The Weapons Systems Officer ejected along with the pilot when their F15E Strike Eagle they were flying was struck Thursday night (early Friday local time) in southwest Iran.  The WSO used the SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape) training to evade capture, hiding on an elevated ridge after hiking away from the wreckage and putting out an emergency beacon.) US Special Operations rescue forces to include PJs (United States Air Force Pararescuemen (PJs) and many layers of elite rescue forces took part in the complex, layered mission to both find the crew member and also keep the Iranian forces who were hunting the American weapons system operator at bay. There are videos that have appeared from local eyewitnesses that show what appear to have been  injured and dead Iranian members of the IRGC and Basij who were looking for the downed American crew member. Fox has learned there was fighting on the ground but no Americans killed during the operation. “It was a very complex operation to retrieve the downed service member,” a well placed source briefed on the operation told me. Many different branches of the US military were involved in the rescue. Fox News can confirm the A10 Warthog that crashed Friday was involved in providing cover for the rescue teams searching for the pilot. That A10 crashed in Kuwait (first reported by ABC Friday) but the A10 pilot managed to eject safely and was rescued. There was destruction of aircraft which have sensitive equipment on board, I am told, all part of this complex CSAR (Combat Search and Rescue) mission. The F15E was pretty much destroyed on impact. Two rescue helicopters were hit by enemy fire on  Friday and crew members onboard were injured by enemy fire but managed to make it out of Iran. There were a lot of elements to this rescue, I am told.

🇺🇸 US Government source issues a new update. The airman has yet to be exfiltrated from Iran.

Bloomberg reports that U.S. has used almost its entire stock of JASSM-ER stealth cruise missiles against Iran, drawing even from reserves allocated for other operations such as a potential conflict with China. Out of the total 2,300 before the war only arround 425 would remain globally.

Basij fired MANPADS at US Blackhawk helicopter. Intense clashes between US special forces and local Basijj forces are currently happen to capture the Pilot.

The first excuse was: “DeepSeek only succeeded because they secretly used Nvidia.” The next nightmare is much worse: DeepSeek V4 will run on Huawei chips, after months of work rewriting code for Chinese hardware and freezing US chipmakers out of early optimization.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Timeline of a Trump Ephiphany: 🔸️Jan 18: “Iranian patriots, help is coming. We are moving in.” 🔸️Feb 28: “We are launching the decisive operation. It will be very fast.” 🔸️Mar 2: “We will win easily.” 🔸️Mar 3: “We have won the war.” 🔸️Mar 7: “We defeated Iran.” 🔸️Mar 9: “Strike Iran. The war is almost over—clean and decisive.” 🔸️Mar 12: “We have won, but not completely yet.” 🔸️Mar 13: “We won the war again.” 🔸️Mar 14: “We need help to open the strait.” 🔸️Mar 15: “If you don’t help, I will remember it.” 🔸️Mar 16: “We actually don’t need help—I was testing loyalty. If NATO doesn’t help, consequences will follow." 🔸️Mar 17: “We don’t need NATO help and don’t want it. No Congress approval needed to exit NATO.” 🔸️Mar 18: “Allies must cooperate to open the Strait of Hormuz.” 🔸️Mar 19: “US allies must step up and help open the strait.” 🔸️Mar 20: “NATO is cowardly. We may phase this out.” 🔸️Mar 21: “We don’t use the strait. Others need it, not us.” 🔸️Mar 22: “Final warning. Iran has 48 hours. Iran is finished.” 🔸️Mar 23: “One more week, then we bomb power plants.” 🔸️Mar 24: “The war is nearing its end.” 🔸️Mar 25: “We are negotiating with Iran.” 🔸️Mar 26: “Iran is begging for peace. They gave us a gift. We delay strikes on power plants.” 🔸️Mar 27: “I and the Ayatollah will jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz.” 🔸️Mar 28: “Regime change has occurred in Iran.” 🔸️Mar 29: “Negotiations with Iran are going extremely well.” 🔸️Mar 30: “We are prepared to destroy Iran’s oil and energy infrastructure and occupy Kharg Island.” 🔸️Mar 31: “We are ready to end the war without opening the strait.” 🔸️Apr 1: “War ends in 3 days. We will bomb them for 2–3 weeks back into the Stone Age.” 🔸️Apr 2: “We destroyed three major bridges. Why haven’t they called us yet?” Also April 2nd US Senator on CNN: “The message I wanted to convey here is that if this second pilot is not rescued, he should be treated in accordance with international humanitarian laws regarding prisoners. Many argue that the US actions to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure are a violation of international law. If Iran shows that if it captures this pilot, it will follow international humanitarian law, it will be a very strong message that we must always follow the rules, especially when it comes to survivors of attacks like this.”

🇺🇸In yesterday's newspaper edition, the New York Times did not know what NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) stood for.

Second A-10 was downed and possibly another F-16 in the last hour. Seems Iran is luring the US Air force and now taking them down using the pilots as bait.