Money don’t make you solid, it just makes you 10 times more of the person you are before you got it

Bitcoin Age audiobook is now available. I hope you guys will take a listen!

I’m here all week!

good evening count your blessings I am officially on 1-hour candles across all charts on the desk tonight nice to be back on nostr!

Satoshi broke economics with digital scarcity. No supply response destroys every model.

In the spirit of doing right by our TBL readers, I went back to check on how I thought the year would play out from a rates perspective. I also wanted to see just how soon I thought cuts would be here (because I was clearly early to that call). Here is what I wrote in January: "Our big [2022] claim was “don’t assume that the Fed will pivot at the first sign of equity weakness”—this ended up being correct. Our next claim was that hikes would slow to a pause by the end of the year—this did not happen, but slowing inflation makes us confident we are merely early to the call." Postmortem: The pause happened after July's hike, and yes we were quite early to the disinflation party. It's for you to judge if we were correct and just early, or wrong. Next forecast: "This year, the debate will center around rate cuts during a recession. For that, we’ll need to understand when the recession has actually arrived (it hasn’t yet, especially with a relatively strong fourth quarter of GDP), how serious it is, and how much the housing market physically requires lower rates to carry on. The Fed’s job, in its own eyes, is not to rush to pivot its policy rate lower, but rather to maintain a restrictive rate for as long as it can to assure inflation has come back down. The Fed’s battle then becomes whether to protect its reputation as a two-way institution or succumb to the critiques that it is simply a money-printing whale with no long-term ability to stop. Currently, the Fed has been in tightening mode coming up to a year, but with the vast majority of the past decade and a half in easing mode, the onus is on the Fed to prove it can remain restrictive. Just as many believe them as those who don’t, which should sustain the lively debate for months to come." Postmortem: Without a doubt, I was wrong to suggest that a recession would arrive and that a debate around cuts would involve a recession. The US did not come close to a recession in 2023, but rate cut debates have begun with a few weeks to go in the year. I suggested that the debate on how restrictive they could be would remain lively for months to come, and I think this will mark the big difference between my 2023 and 2024 outlooks. My 2024 outlook will unabashedly predict a cutting cycle (we've already suggested cuts by March in Europe and by June in the US). I really don't have any problem being 6-12 months early to a call, because my investment framework is cyclically driven, so I am simply attempting to find where we are instead of running around like a chicken with its head cut off. My suggestion is to follow what we are doing at TBL, both the written and video/audio product, for intellectual honestly, macro analysis (with some predictions) without any trade ideas or commission-based or profit-based motivation, and the opinion of two dudes (Joe Consorti and I) who love and live and breathe and sleep markets.

this year, going long Treasuries might have gotten a trader or two fired next year, there will be asset managers fired for not locking in 5% Treasury yields during 2023 market shifts are much easier seen in hindsight

BLOODBATH IN US TREASURIES CONTINUES dollar squeeze as well, especially in Japan somebody is getting liquidated, or perhaps this is the blowup of the basis trade that many have been warning about, including the BIS most recently:

Margin leverage and vulnerabilities in US Treasury futures

Box extracted from Overview chapter "Resilient risk-taking in financial markets", BIS Quarterly Review September 2023.

there rates go ↗️ and the Treasury deluge hasn’t even really quite started ever seen the crowding out effect in action? Q4 shaping up to be a wild one!

midterm tonight…don’t show my students

good morning count your blessings!

I have the great honor and privilege to begin my 5th year as an adjunct professor @ USC Marshall tomorrow. I’ll be teaching bitcoin this semester to grad students as it approaches its 15th birthday and 4th halving. Blessed!

Jobless claims are creeping up. Highest in almost two years. Lagged effects of tightening hitting labor market NOW.

This year’s Bilderberg topics, banking system top of mind 👀 A.I. Banking system China Energy transition  Europe Fiscal challenges India  Industrial policy and trade NATO Russia Transnational threats Ukraine  U.S. leadership covered by CNBC now 🤷🏽‍♂️👇🏽

CNBC

A secretive annual meeting attended by the world's elite has A.I. top of the agenda

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will join forces with key leadership from Microsoft, DeepMind and Google on Thursday as the secretive Bilderberg Meeting kick...

While many obsess over the debt ceiling fight, markets ponder what an agreement will bring in terms of liquidity drain, as the Treasury refills its general account at the Fed. Money used to buy T-bills means money not hitting the system elsewhere (until govt spends it). We wait.

I am very excited to announce “Layered Money Goes to DC”! In June, I’ll head to the Capitol to meet with members of Congress, give them copies of my book Layered Money, and represent bitcoin as an American ideal. Please consider throwing some sats toward supplying books!

Bitcoin Crowdfunding for New Ideas and Humanitarian Causes | Geyser

Geyser helps people launch new Bitcoin project ideas and fund humanitarian causes worldwide, accelerating adoption through transparent crowdfunding.

REGIME SHIFT something we have been watching closely the chart shows how strongly positive the correlation is now between 10-year Treasury yields and stocks when yields head lower, it won't be supportive to stocks as it was last year

Everywhere you look, it’s dedollarization. Headlines and narratives, of course. Because on the ground and within the banking system, it seems that all anybody wants is dollars. How realistic is dedollarization, though? Not very, especially when you look at the hard numbers. In today’s free post, we’ll explore how hopes of a euro-, yuan-, or gold-centric monetary system are intangible. We’ll also explain how bitcoin adoption is the only competitor with promising, albeit early, momentum. Bitcoin’s adoption trend calls into question any momentum the euro, yuan, or gold might have in challenging the dollar. The dollar remains dominant and entrenched, but the internet’s currency is just beginning to strengthen its running legs. Let’s see before how long it enters a full sprint.

Dollar Challengers: Euro, Yuan, Gold, and Bitcoin

Four competitors lurk, but which is likely to emerge?

The reason I started a substack in the first place, September 2021, was that I was generally sick of relying on twitter to reach readers Here’s our latest update, all weekly updates are free to everybody!

Objects In The Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear: TBL Weekly #39

"Robust" jobs data closed out the week — but after many weeks of contractionary economic data, commodity prices, and investor positioning, do not...

Banks under fire for more than poor hedging and low-interest deposit rates. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are both being sued by Epstein accusers. Just published "Jamie Dimon to be interviewed under oath in Epstein sex trafficking case" for #[0]​

Jamie Dimon to be interviewed under oath in Epstein sex trafficking case

Banks under fire for more than poor hedging and low-interest deposit rates. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are both being sued by Epstein accusers.