OneEzra

One year later. BTC has zero gains in dollar terms. Pretty wild 2025. Low ~$78k. High ~ 125k. 200 day rolling average is ~109k. A model (hypothetical): BTC will do a 30% gain per year (given a duration of 3-5 years). Currently we are up ~ 420% over the last five years = 37.9% average yearly return. If we see growth of 30% /yr over the next 5 years, we’d double twice. At ~100k today that’d be ~400k in 5 years. At $78k (low of 2025) a twice double is ~ $275k. So is BTC expensive right now? Best I can figure is that 91k is a fair value. At ~$65k per BTC it would be a better value. Suppose then $40k is extreme value. 🤷🏻‍♂️ How are you thinking of fair value for BTC? Let us know in the comments.

nostr:nprofile1qqs2ml382cz894gk33u7sgr37yhhkcpeek2t5ejw2j59tsmusrcawdcpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq3samnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwdhx7un59eek7cmfv9kqmtr6aq saw this reposted from a year ago. Well said. https://x.com/laurenoflight_/status/1858715418774442127

Bitcoin: concentration is fragile, distribution is antifragile. https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/bitcoins-silent-ipo-why-this-consolidation

Searched X for some context on a stock that had done well recently. I wonder how many posts are bots or have an unclear agenda.

A collection of historical U.S. banknotes — mostly from the 1800s — that predate the modern centralized U.S. currency system. Before the U.S. federal government standardized currency in 1863–1865, individual state-chartered banks, cities, and even private institutions issued their own paper money. This period (roughly 1790s–1860s) is known as the “Free Banking Era.”

If you choose to drink, imperial stout.

Forgot to add 2 1/2 teaspoons of salt to my sourdough bread dough. Still worth eating just not quite as flavorful.

Really enjoyed Tron Aries. Go see it if you like that sort of thing.

“Credit is based on our shared hallucination that tomorrow will exist.” -Adam Livingston on $MSTR True Morth